Ironi Tiberias
vs
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Ironi Tiberias 1–2 Hapoel Beer Sheva
The model makes it 27% Ironi Tiberias, 27% draw, 46% Hapoel Beer Sheva — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Ironi Tiberias 1.21, Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.93.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Beer Sheva at 46% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Ironi Tiberias
- L2-3away to Maccabi Haifa19 September 2026
- D2-2Hapoel Jerusalem15 September 2026
- W2-1away to Maccabi Petah Tikva5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona29 August 2026
- W1-0Hapoel Petah Tikva22 August 2026
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- W1-0Ironi Kiryat Shmona19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Hapoel Petah Tikva13 September 2026
- L1-4Maccabi Tel Aviv7 September 2026
- D2-2Hapoel Haifa2 September 2026
- W2-1away to Hapoel Ramat Gan29 August 2026
What these results say
- Ironi Tiberias scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ironi Tiberias conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Beer Sheva scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Ironi Tiberias and Hapoel Beer Sheva
Ironi Tiberias
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- A. Ganah2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ironi Tiberias carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.57 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Ironi Tiberias and 1.93 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ironi Tiberias rate 0.56 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Beer Sheva rate 0.77 and 1.35.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Beer Sheva the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Ironi Tiberias against 1.93 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Ironi Tiberias's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.35 for Hapoel Beer Sheva.