Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Jerusalem Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Maccabi Petah Tikva 2-4 Hapoel Jerusalem.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Maccabi Petah Tikva, 28% draw, 36% Hapoel Jerusalem — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Petah Tikva at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Line-ups
- 39M. ErlichG
- 26G. DeznetD
- 18E. TibiD
- 22Bashar AbdachD
- 17A. SalemD
- 20I. CohenM
- 21I. SoumahM
- 27Y. KorenM
- 53L. HazanM
- 9S. OwusuM
- 77J. CortésF
- 7K. SpenceF
- 8Dan Lee-YamD
- 30O. DadyaD
- 12I. BaruchD
- 1D. HevronG
- 99Eyal InbrumF
- 6E. YaoD
- 10A. LugassyF
- 97M. RakonjacF
- 55N. ZamirG
- 22T. HaimovichD
- 21Hilay Sharabi MelmanD
- 3N. MalmudD
- 8I. MadmonM
- 19N. VrasanaM
- 91C. TiéhiM
- 23Nati ShafrauM
- 18L. MizrachiM
- 17Abdulsalam SaniF
- 25A. IdokoF
- 7O. AlmagorF
- 9E. ChilufyaF
- 33I. DaphahF
- 11Y. DistalfeldM
- 1B. Gordin AnbaryG
- 20O. NadirD
- 70S. ZuberuD
- 16O. AgvadishM
- 14O. AbuhavM
Form going into Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Ligat Ha'al
- L1-3away to Beitar Jerusalem15 September 2026
Hapoel Jerusalem
Ligat Ha'al
- D2-2away to Ironi Tiberias15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hapoel Jerusalem | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Jerusalem
- 2 August 2026Hapoel Jerusalem 1–0 Maccabi Petah TikvaToto Cup Ligat Al
- 26 April 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 0–0 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 11 January 2025Maccabi Petah Tikva 2–0 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 28 September 2024Hapoel Jerusalem 4–1 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 14 April 2024Hapoel Jerusalem 2–0 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 3 January 2024Hapoel Jerusalem 3–1 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Maccabi Petah Tikva and Hapoel Jerusalem
Maccabi Petah Tikva
GoalsAssists
- J. Cortés41
Hapoel Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- A. Idoko42
- N. Vrasana40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hapoel Jerusalem won 4–2 at Maccabi Petah Tikva. The goals: N. Vrasana 6' for Hapoel Jerusalem, N. Malmud 16' for Hapoel Jerusalem, N. Vrasana 34' for Hapoel Jerusalem, José Cortés 42' for Maccabi Petah Tikva, Liran Hazan 54' for Maccabi Petah Tikva, N. Vrasana 55' for Hapoel Jerusalem.
How the call on Maccabi Petah Tikva v Hapoel Jerusalem has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 27% / 30% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 36% / 28% / 36%: the biggest move is Maccabi Petah Tikva's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Maccabi Petah Tikva win36%▲ +9
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Hapoel Jerusalem win36%▼ −7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.