Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Legia Warszawa 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Legia Warszawa, 23% draw, 19% Zaglebie Lubin — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Legia Warszawa at 58% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 89O. HindrichG
- 91K. PiatkowskiD
- 8R. AugustyniakD
- 5R. DezielD
- 4D. SzymanskiM
- 22P. WszolekM
- 53W. UrbanskiM
- 67B. KapustkaM
- 19R. VinagreM
- 29M. RajovicF
- 79L. ZjawinskiF
- 59J. BiendugaG
- 13A. RecaD
- 23M. SevcikM
- 9R. AdamskiF
- 6H. ArreiolM
- 99S. KovacikF
- 20J. ZewlakowF
- 24Z. ArsenicD
- 11K. ChodynaM
- 1J. BuricG
- 16J. CorlukaD
- 5A. LawniczakD
- 25M. NalepaD
- 4D. MichalskiD
- 6D. ColinaD
- 44M. RegulaM
- 26J. KolanM
- 39F. KocabaM
- 37S. KerkM
- 17L. SzaboF
- 95F. NowakG
- 8D. DabrowskiM
- 88M. MlinaricF
- 31I. OrlikowskiD
- 20M. DziewiatowskiM
- 71K. NowogonskiM
- 11A. WozniakM
- 9M. KosidisF
- 18F. SzymczakF
Form going into Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin
Legia Warszawa
- W1-0away to Pogon Szczecin24 July 2026
Zaglebie Lubin
- W2-0Piast Gliwice27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Legia Warszawa | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 8 | Zaglebie Lubin | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin
- 2 August 2026Legia Warszawa 3–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 17 April 2026Legia Warszawa 1–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 19 October 2025Zaglebie Lubin 3–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 8 December 2024Zaglebie Lubin 0–3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 20 July 2024Legia Warszawa 2–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 25 May 2024Legia Warszawa 2–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin
Legia Warszawa
- R. Augustyniak3 goals1 assists
- R. Adamski3 goals
- Ł. Zjawiński3 goals
Zaglebie Lubin
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.