Dijon
vs
Metz
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Dijon 1–2 Metz
The model makes it 35% Dijon, 28% draw, 37% Metz — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Dijon 1.47, Metz 1.51.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Dijon and Metz are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dijon are 9th on 9 points from 7 games; Metz are 5th on 10 points from 7 games — Ligue 2.
- Dijon are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-1 win away to Annecy.
- Metz have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Saint Etienne.
- Last 5 meetings: Metz 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 February 2023, ended Dijon 0–0 Metz.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dijon vs Metz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Metz at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dijon vs Metz
Dijon
- W2-1away to Annecy18 September 2026
- W3-2Laval11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Boulogne4 September 2026
- L2-3Saint Etienne31 August 2026
- D1-1away to Clermont Foot21 August 2026
Metz
- D2-2Saint Etienne19 September 2026
- L0-1away to RED Star FC 9314 September 2026
- W4-1Rodez5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Annecy29 August 2026
- D1-1Laval22 August 2026
What these results say
- Dijon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dijon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Dijon.
- Metz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Metz failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Metz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Dijon | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Metz | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dijon vs Metz
- 18 February 2023Dijon 0–0 MetzLigue 2
- 27 August 2022Metz 1–2 DijonLigue 2
- 2 May 2021Dijon 1–5 MetzLigue 1
- 8 November 2020Metz 1–1 DijonLigue 1
- 7 August 2020Dijon 1–2 MetzFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Dijon and Metz
Dijon
- Júlio Tavares3 goals1 assist
- Samy Olivier Chouchane3 goals
Metz
- P. Fall5 goals
- J. Deminguet2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dijon carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.56 for Metz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Dijon and 1.51 for Metz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dijon rate 0.74 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Metz rate 0.75 and 1.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dijon a 2.3% chance of the title and Metz 7.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Metz the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Dijon against 1.51 for Metz. Dijon's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.35 for Metz.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dijon at home · Metz away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Dijon 7, Metz 7.
Dijon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Metz have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dijon
- at Reims16 Oct · Ligue 2win 27%
- vs Rodez24 Oct · Ligue 2win 40%
- at Grenoble30 Oct · Ligue 2win 34%
- vs RED Star FC 936 Nov · Ligue 2win 38%
- at Nancy20 Nov · Ligue 2win 35%
Metz
- vs Sochaux17 Oct · Ligue 2win 42%
- at Dunkerque23 Oct · Ligue 2win 37%
- vs PAU30 Oct · Ligue 2win 48%
- at Montpellier6 Nov · Ligue 2win 31%
- vs Boulogne20 Nov · Ligue 2win 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.