Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles Galaxy 1-3 St. Louis City.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Los Angeles Galaxy, 33% draw, 38% St. Louis City — fair odds of 3.45, 3.03 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12JT MarcinkowskiG
- 2Miki YamaneD
- 5Jakob GlesnesD
- 25Carlos GarcésD
- 14John NelsonD
- 15Justin HaakM
- 28Joseph PaintsilM
- 22Elijah WynderM
- 8Lucas SanabriaM
- 26Harbor MillerM
- 18Marco ReusF
- 21Robert TaylorM
- 3Julián AudeD
- 16Isaiah ParenteM
- 4Maya YoshidaD
- 76Troy ElgersmaM
- 1Novak MićovićG
- 20Chris RindovD
- 1Roman BürkiG
- 5Lukas MacNaughtonD
- 32Timo BaumgartlD
- 21Dante PolvaraD
- 59Mykhi JoynerM
- 24Daniel EdelmanM
- 8Christopher DurkinM
- 14Tomas TotlandM
- 17Marcel HartelF
- 10Eduard LöwenF
- 11Simon BecherF
- 99Jaziel OrozcoD
- 20Rafael SantosD
- 77Jeong Sang-binF
- 28Miguel PerezM
- 29Palmer AultM
- 39Benjamin LundtG
- 22Kyle HiebertD
- 27Fallou FallD
- 7Tomáš OstrákM
Form going into Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City
Los Angeles Galaxy
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Los Angeles FC18 July 2026
St. Louis City
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Sporting Kansas City17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 45 | 54 | -9 | 41 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 47 | +11 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City
- 11 February 2026Los Angeles Galaxy 3–0 St. Louis CityFriendlies Clubs
- 14 June 2025St. Louis City 3–3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 0–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2024St. Louis City 2–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 17 March 2024Los Angeles Galaxy 3–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Los Angeles Galaxy and St. Louis City
Los Angeles Galaxy
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 45 league goals as a side.
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro196
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St. Louis City won 3–1 at Los Angeles Galaxy. The model had made a win for St. Louis City its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: L. MacNaughton 42' for St. Louis City, M. Hartel 45+1' for St. Louis City, S. Becher 68' for St. Louis City, T. Elgersma 86' for Los Angeles Galaxy. Sent off: C. Garces (Los Angeles Galaxy) 49'. On expected goals it finished 0.98–2.04.