Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles Galaxy 1-3 St. Louis City.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Los Angeles Galaxy, 33% draw, 38% St. Louis City — fair odds of 3.45, 3.03 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12JT MarcinkowskiG
- 2Miki YamaneD
- 5Jakob GlesnesD
- 25Carlos GarcésD
- 14John NelsonD
- 15Justin HaakM
- 28Joseph PaintsilM
- 22Elijah WynderM
- 8Lucas SanabriaM
- 26Harbor MillerM
- 18Marco ReusF
- 21Robert TaylorM
- 3Julián AudeD
- 16Isaiah ParenteM
- 4Maya YoshidaD
- 76Troy ElgersmaM
- 1Novak MićovićG
- 20Chris RindovD
- 1Roman BürkiG
- 5Lukas MacNaughtonD
- 32Timo BaumgartlD
- 21Dante PolvaraD
- 59Mykhi JoynerM
- 24Daniel EdelmanM
- 8Christopher DurkinM
- 14Tomas TotlandM
- 17Marcel HartelF
- 10Eduard LöwenF
- 11Simon BecherF
- 99Jaziel OrozcoD
- 20Rafael SantosD
- 77Jeong Sang-binF
- 28Miguel PerezM
- 29Palmer AultM
- 39Benjamin LundtG
- 22Kyle HiebertD
- 27Fallou FallD
- 7Tomáš OstrákM
Form going into Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City
Los Angeles Galaxy
- L0-3Los Angeles FC18 July 2026
St. Louis City
- W3-2Sporting Kansas City17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 30 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 35 | +7 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City
- 23 July 2026Los Angeles Galaxy 1–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 11 February 2026Los Angeles Galaxy 3–0 St. Louis CityFriendlies Clubs
- 14 June 2025St. Louis City 3–3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 0–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2024St. Louis City 2–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 17 March 2024Los Angeles Galaxy 3–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer