Lommel United
vs
Charleroi
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 22% Lommel United, 21% draw, 57% Charleroi — fair odds of 4.55, 4.76 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Lommel United 1.31, Charleroi 2.17.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lommel United
- D1-1away to St. Truiden8 August 2026
Charleroi
- W3-1OH Leuven9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lommel United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where they stand. Charleroi has not started the league season yet. Full tables
The two sides
Lommel United carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.93 for Charleroi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lommel United D; Charleroi W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Lommel United and 2.17 for Charleroi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lommel United rate 0.79 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Charleroi rate 1.02 and 0.88.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charleroi the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Lommel United against 2.17 for Charleroi. Lommel United's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/0.88 for Charleroi.