KV Mechelen vs Standard Liege Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: KV Mechelen 3-3 Standard Liege.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% KV Mechelen, 26% draw, 50% Standard Liege — fair odds of 4.17, 3.85 and 2.00.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Standard Liege at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — KV Mechelen vs Standard Liege
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13N. MirasG
- 39M. DecoeneD
- 2L. MarijnissenD
- 5L. F. HjeldeD
- 3J. MarsaD
- 8D. SalifouM
- 6F. HammarM
- 7T. KoudouM
- 26D. PraetM
- 9M. van BrederodeM
- 19M. Lohunanu-MbasiF
- 1O. De WolfG
- 20K. CorbanieD
- 18I. StruyfD
- 10M. KireevM
- 40A. OuahabiM
- 11B. BafdiliM
- 14B. RamanF
- 16S. AyodeleF
- 17C. Van Meirvenne
- 1M. EpoloG
- 13M. FosseyD
- 20I. KaramokoD
- 25I. HautekietD
- 3G. MortensenD
- 94C. NielsenM
- 22A. TrouilletM
- 84R. TouzgharM
- 17B. NgueneF
- 10D. EckertF
- 11A. AbidF
- 21L. PirardG
- 29D. DierckxD
- 18H. LawrenceD
- 80R. FossoM
- 7T. MohrM
- 19S. JasperM
- 59T. NkadaF
- 77B. NsimbaF
- 15S. DrammehM
Form going into KV Mechelen vs Standard Liege
KV Mechelen
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Gent9 August 2026
Standard Liege
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Cercle Brugge8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | KV Mechelen | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 12 |
| 8 | Standard Liege | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: KV Mechelen vs Standard Liege
- 28 November 2025KV Mechelen 0–1 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 12 September 2025Standard Liege 1–1 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- 10 May 2025KV Mechelen 0–0 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 29 March 2025Standard Liege 2–2 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- 26 December 2024KV Mechelen 0–0 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: KV Mechelen and Standard Liege
KV Mechelen
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Standard Liege
GoalsAssists
- D. Eckert Ayensa71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
KV Mechelen and Standard Liege drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Standard Liege at 50% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: B. Nguene 9' for Standard Liege, A. Abid 24' for Standard Liege, T. Koudou 45' for KV Mechelen, A. Abid 65' for Standard Liege, M. van Brederode (penalty) 89' for KV Mechelen, M. van Brederode (penalty) 90' for KV Mechelen. On expected goals it finished 2.75–1.64.