Spaeri vs Dila Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Spaeri 1-4 Dila.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Spaeri, 27% draw, 37% Dila — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Erovnuli Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dila at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1B. Putkaradze
- 22N. Chagunava
- 20N. Kentchadze
- 4G. Grigalashvili
- 13S. Mathenjwa
- 6T. Askurava
- 5T. Tsalughelashvili
- 19G. Tsirdava
- 17L. Kokhreidze
- 7S. Gegiadze
- 9G. Tsetskhladze
- 2G. Pirtakhia
- 3L. Kachibaia
- 16S. Dzneladze
- 21O. Gordeziani
- 23N. Chomakhidze
- 24Z. Golubiani
- 25R. Injgia
- 26B. Jibril
- 30Z. Basilashvili
- 1D. Kereselidze
- 33R. Etou
- 25L. Yarbrough
- 5M. N. Puketi
- 14G. Jalaghonia
- 17B. Anoff
- 8L. Menteshashvili
- 24M. Diouf
- 10O. Parulava
- 22S. Shekiladze
- 9M. Kante
- 12L. Sanikidze
- 15G. Kobakhidze
- 19B. Gogoberishvili
- 21Z. Museliani
- 36S. Beruashvili
Form going into Spaeri vs Dila
Spaeri
Erovnuli Liga
- L0-1away to FC Iberia 199913 September 2026
Dila
Erovnuli Liga
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 199917 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Spaeri | 30 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 27 |
| 5 | Dila | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 40 | 37 | +3 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spaeri vs Dila
- 16 June 2026Dila 3–1 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
- 26 April 2026Spaeri 0–1 DilaErovnuli Liga
- 23 September 2025Spaeri 1–2 DilaDavid Kipiani Cup
- 2 July 2025Dila 2–0 SpaeriSuper Cup
- 19 September 2020Spaeri 0–2 DilaDavid Kipiani Cup
The result against the call
Dila won 4–1 at Spaeri. The model had made a win for Dila its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: T. Tsalughelashvili 11' for Spaeri, S. Shekiladze 22' for Dila, M. Kante 31' for Dila, L. Menteshashvili 43' for Dila, M. Kante 45' for Dila.
How the call on Spaeri v Dila has moved
First published on 7 Sep at 31% / 27% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 36% / 27% / 37%: the biggest move is Spaeri's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Spaeri win36%▲ +5
- Draw27%=
- Dila win37%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.