FC Kharkiv
vs
Livyi Bereh
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Kharkiv 1–0 Livyi Bereh
The model makes it 47% FC Kharkiv, 32% draw, 21% Livyi Bereh — fair odds of 2.13, 3.13 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (19%).
Expected goals: FC Kharkiv 1.36, Livyi Bereh 0.60.
Both teams to score: 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- FC Kharkiv are 5th on 12 points from 6 games; Livyi Bereh are 9th on 7 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- FC Kharkiv are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Bukovyna.
- Livyi Bereh have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended Livyi Bereh 2–1 FC Kharkiv.
All Ukrainian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Kharkiv at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh
FC Kharkiv
- W2-0Bukovyna19 September 2026
- W5-0Obolon'-Brovar5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Zorya Luhansk31 August 2026
- L0-1Shakhtar Donetsk16 August 2026
- L1-3away to Polessya10 August 2026
Livyi Bereh
- W2-0away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Polessya13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Chornomorets4 September 2026
- D1-1Karpaty29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Kryvbas KR15 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Kharkiv scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Livyi Bereh had two goals or fewer.
- Livyi Bereh failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FC Kharkiv | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 9 | Livyi Bereh | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh
- 2 August 2026Livyi Bereh 2–1 FC KharkivFriendlies Clubs
- 1 June 2025FC Kharkiv 1–0 Livyi BerehPremier League
- 29 May 2025Livyi Bereh 0–1 FC KharkivPremier League
- 22 January 2025Livyi Bereh 3–0 FC KharkivFriendlies Clubs
- 26 July 2024Livyi Bereh 1–1 FC KharkivPremier League
The two sides
FC Kharkiv carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.49 for Livyi Bereh. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.60 for Livyi Bereh. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Kharkiv rate 0.76 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Livyi Bereh rate 0.48 and 1.10.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Kharkiv a 3.9% chance of the title and Livyi Bereh 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Kharkiv the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for FC Kharkiv against 0.60 for Livyi Bereh. FC Kharkiv's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.1 for Livyi Bereh.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Kharkiv at home · Livyi Bereh away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Kharkiv 6, Livyi Bereh 6.
FC Kharkiv score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Livyi Bereh have let in 0 there.
Livyi Bereh score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); FC Kharkiv have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Kharkiv
- at Epitsentr Dunayivtsi24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- at LNZ Cherkasy31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Karpaty7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 43%
Livyi Bereh
- vs LNZ Cherkasy24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Bukovyna31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Obolon'-Brovar7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- vs Shakhtar Donetsk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.