Bukovyna
vs
Polessya
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Bukovyna 0–1 Polessya
The model makes it 26% Bukovyna, 30% draw, 44% Polessya — fair odds of 3.85, 3.33 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Bukovyna 0.85, Polessya 1.43.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bukovyna are 10th on 7 points from 7 games; Polessya are top on 18 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Bukovyna are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to FC Kharkiv.
- Polessya are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Kryvbas KR.
- Last 5 meetings: Polessya 3 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 March 2025, ended Polessya 0–0 Bukovyna.
All Ukrainian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bukovyna vs Polessya
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Polessya at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bukovyna vs Polessya
Bukovyna
- L0-2away to FC Kharkiv19 September 2026
- D1-1Zorya Luhansk13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi6 September 2026
- W3-0Dynamo Kyiv31 August 2026
- L0-3away to Karpaty15 August 2026
Polessya
- W1-0Kryvbas KR18 September 2026
- W1-0Livyi Bereh13 September 2026
- W5-1Kudrivka4 September 2026
- W2-0away to Shakhtar Donetsk29 August 2026
- L1-2Zorya Luhansk17 August 2026
What these results say
- Bukovyna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Polessya scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Polessya won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bukovyna | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 1 | Polessya | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bukovyna vs Polessya
- 18 March 2025Polessya 0–0 BukovynaFriendlies Clubs
- 13 November 2022Bukovyna 1–2 PolessyaPersha Liga
- 25 September 2022Polessya 2–0 BukovynaPersha Liga
- 23 October 2019Polessya 2–2 BukovynaDruha Liga - Group A
- 31 August 2019Bukovyna 0–2 PolessyaDruha Liga - Group A
The two sides
Bukovyna carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.73 for Polessya. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.85 goals for Bukovyna and 1.43 for Polessya. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bukovyna rate 0.47 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Polessya rate 0.87 and 1.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bukovyna a 0% chance of the title and Polessya 18.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Polessya the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Bukovyna against 1.43 for Polessya. Bukovyna's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.11 for Polessya.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bukovyna at home · Polessya away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Bukovyna 7, Polessya 7.
Bukovyna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Polessya have let in 1 there.
Polessya score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Bukovyna have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bukovyna
- at Kudrivka17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- vs Kryvbas KR24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- at Livyi Bereh31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs Kolos Kovalivka7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- at Veres Rivne21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
Polessya
- vs Dynamo Kyiv17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- vs Obolon'-Brovar24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 70%
- at Kolos Kovalivka31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- vs Veres Rivne7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 59%
- at LNZ Cherkasy21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.