Obolon'-Brovar
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Obolon'-Brovar 0–2 Shakhtar Donetsk
The model makes it 10% Obolon'-Brovar, 18% draw, 72% Shakhtar Donetsk — fair odds of 10.00, 5.56 and 1.39. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (13%).
Expected goals: Obolon'-Brovar 0.70, Shakhtar Donetsk 2.57.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Shakhtar Donetsk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Obolon'-Brovar are 13th on 7 points from 8 games; Shakhtar Donetsk are top on 24 points from 9 games — Premier League.
- Obolon'-Brovar have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Veres Rivne.
- Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Kolos Kovalivka.
- Last 6 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 May 2026, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 Obolon'-Brovar.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shakhtar Donetsk at 72% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Obolon'-Brovar
- W2-0Veres Rivne16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Chornomorets18 September 2026
- L1-3away to LNZ Cherkasy12 September 2026
- L0-5away to FC Kharkiv5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Kolos Kovalivka28 August 2026
Shakhtar Donetsk
- W2-1Kolos Kovalivka17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Veres Rivne9 October 2026
- W3-0LNZ Cherkasy20 September 2026
- W2-0Chornomorets14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Karpaty5 September 2026
What these results say
- Obolon'-Brovar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shakhtar Donetsk won every one of these 5 matches.
- Shakhtar Donetsk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Shakhtar Donetsk had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 7 |
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Obolon'-Brovar
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 68% today
Shakhtar Donetsk
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 80% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Obolon'-Brovar vs Shakhtar Donetsk
- 13 May 2026Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
- 22 November 2025Obolon'-Brovar 0–6 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- 29 March 2025Obolon'-Brovar 0–2 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- 23 September 2024Shakhtar Donetsk 4–0 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
- 30 March 2024Obolon'-Brovar 0–3 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- 16 September 2023Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
Leading scorers: Obolon'-Brovar and Shakhtar Donetsk
Obolon'-Brovar
GoalsAssists
- A. Matkevych11
- N. Fedorivskyi11
- S. Sukhanov11
Shakhtar Donetsk
GoalsAssists
- O. Ocheretko20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Obolon'-Brovar carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.92 for Shakhtar Donetsk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.70 goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 2.57 for Shakhtar Donetsk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Obolon'-Brovar rate 0.46 in attack and 1.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shakhtar Donetsk rate 1.09 and 0.94.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Obolon'-Brovar a 0% chance of the title and Shakhtar Donetsk 79.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar against 2.57 for Shakhtar Donetsk. Obolon'-Brovar's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.94 for Shakhtar Donetsk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Obolon'-Brovar at home · Shakhtar Donetsk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Obolon'-Brovar 8, Shakhtar Donetsk 9.
Shakhtar Donetsk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Obolon'-Brovar have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Obolon'-Brovar
- vs Livyi Bereh7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at Dynamo Kyiv21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 9%
- vs Zorya Luhansk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs Karpaty5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
Shakhtar Donetsk
- vs Sporting CP3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 31%
- vs Dynamo Kyiv7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 61%
- at Livyi Bereh21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.