Partick
vs
Arbroath
Championship prediction
Our model says: Partick 1–0 Arbroath
The model makes it 42% Partick, 29% draw, 29% Arbroath — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Partick 1.54, Arbroath 1.11.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Partick are 4th on 12 points from 7 games; Arbroath are 6th on 11 points from 8 games — Championship.
- Partick have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Raith Rovers.
- Arbroath have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Queen's Park.
- Last 6 meetings: Partick 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Arbroath 0–0 Partick.
All Scottish Championship predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Partick vs Arbroath
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Partick at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Partick vs Arbroath
Partick
- D0-0Raith Rovers19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Stenhousemuir15 September 2026
- W1-0Ayr Utd5 September 2026
- D0-0Queen's Park29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Inverness CT21 August 2026
Arbroath
- W2-1Queen's Park25 September 2026
- L0-1away to Stenhousemuir19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Raith Rovers12 September 2026
- D1-1Dunfermline5 September 2026
- W1-0Livingston29 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Partick had two goals or fewer.
- Partick failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arbroath conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Partick | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Partick vs Arbroath
- 25 April 2026Arbroath 0–0 PartickChampionship
- 28 February 2026Partick 0–0 ArbroathChampionship
- 13 December 2025Arbroath 2–1 PartickChampionship
- 4 October 2025Partick 1–1 ArbroathChampionship
- 23 March 2024Arbroath 0–1 PartickChampionship
- 6 January 2024Partick 4–0 ArbroathChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Partick carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.27 for Arbroath. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Partick and 1.11 for Arbroath. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Partick rate 0.56 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arbroath rate 0.53 and 1.69.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Partick a 12.7% chance of the title and Arbroath 5.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Partick the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Partick against 1.11 for Arbroath. Partick's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.69 for Arbroath.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Partick at home · Arbroath away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Partick 7, Arbroath 8.
Arbroath score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Partick have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Partick
- at Livingston10 Oct · Championshipwin 33%
- at Ayr Utd16 Oct · Championshipwin 45%
- at Dunfermline20 Oct · Championshipwin 30%
- vs Stenhousemuir24 Oct · Championshipwin 37%
- vs Morton31 Oct · Championshipwin 66%
Arbroath
- vs Morton10 Oct · Championshipwin 65%
- at Inverness CT17 Oct · Championshipwin 38%
- at Livingston24 Oct · Championshipwin 32%
- vs Raith Rovers31 Oct · Championshipwin 47%
- vs Ayr Utd7 Nov · Championshipwin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.