FC OSS
vs
MVV
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: FC OSS 1–0 MVV
The model makes it 43% FC OSS, 31% draw, 26% MVV — fair odds of 2.33, 3.23 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: FC OSS 1.42, MVV 0.87.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC OSS are bottom on 6 points from 8 games; MVV are 3rd on 16 points from 8 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- FC OSS have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Emmen.
- MVV have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Helmond Sport.
- Last 5 meetings: FC OSS 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 April 2026, ended MVV 0–2 FC OSS.
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC OSS vs MVV
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC OSS at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC OSS vs MVV
FC OSS
- L0-1away to Emmen26 September 2026
- W3-0Dordrecht18 September 2026
- L1-3away to VVV Venlo11 September 2026
- L1-2away to Vitesse4 September 2026
- W2-1Jong Utrecht28 August 2026
MVV
- W2-0Helmond Sport26 September 2026
- L1-6away to Waalwijk18 September 2026
- L0-4Almere City FC11 September 2026
- D1-1Roda6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Jong AZ28 August 2026
What these results say
- FC OSS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC OSS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC OSS had three goals or more.
- MVV scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- MVV conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | FC OSS | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 |
| 3 | MVV | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC OSS vs MVV
- 24 April 2026MVV 0–2 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 8 August 2025FC OSS 4–0 MVVEerste Divisie
- 10 January 2025FC OSS 1–0 MVVEerste Divisie
- 27 September 2024MVV 2–2 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 22 December 2023MVV 2–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: FC OSS and MVV
FC OSS
- F. Nsingi4 goals
MVV
- O. Dumont5 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC OSS carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.13 for MVV. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for FC OSS and 0.87 for MVV. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC OSS rate 0.46 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; MVV rate 0.45 and 1.90.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour MVV, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC OSS a 0% chance of the title and MVV 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC OSS the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for FC OSS against 0.87 for MVV. FC OSS's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.9 for MVV.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC OSS at home · MVV away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: FC OSS 8, MVV 8.
FC OSS score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); MVV have let in 1 there.
MVV score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); FC OSS have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC OSS
- vs Helmond Sport9 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
- at Den Bosch16 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
- vs Jong Ajax23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 42%
- at Heracles2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 23%
- vs Waalwijk6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 33%
MVV
- at NAC Breda9 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 18%
- vs Heracles18 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
- at Den Bosch23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
- vs VVV Venlo31 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- at Emmen8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.