Waalwijk
vs
Emmen
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Waalwijk 2–1 Emmen
The model makes it 51% Waalwijk, 26% draw, 23% Emmen — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Waalwijk 2.21, Emmen 1.12.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Waalwijk are 7th on 13 points from 8 games; Emmen are 6th on 15 points from 8 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Waalwijk have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Roda.
- Emmen have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to FC OSS.
- Last 6 meetings: Waalwijk 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 April 2026, ended Waalwijk 5–0 Emmen.
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Waalwijk vs Emmen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Waalwijk at 51% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Waalwijk vs Emmen
Waalwijk
- L0-2away to Roda26 September 2026
- W6-1MVV18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Jong Ajax11 September 2026
- W4-2NAC Breda4 September 2026
- D2-2Jong PSV U2128 August 2026
Emmen
- W1-0FC OSS26 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Eindhoven18 September 2026
- L1-2De Graafschap11 September 2026
- W5-3FC Volendam4 September 2026
- L0-4away to VVV Venlo30 August 2026
What these results say
- Waalwijk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Waalwijk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Emmen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Emmen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Emmen had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Waalwijk | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 13 |
| 6 | Emmen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Waalwijk vs Emmen
- 10 April 2026Waalwijk 5–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 2 November 2025Emmen 2–2 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 28 January 2023Waalwijk 2–0 EmmenEredivisie
- 13 August 2022Emmen 1–1 WaalwijkEredivisie
- 4 April 2021Emmen 3–1 WaalwijkEredivisie
- 12 February 2021Waalwijk 1–0 EmmenEredivisie
Leading scorers: Waalwijk and Emmen
Waalwijk
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Emmen
- F. Quispel6 goals
- J. Cooper5 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Waalwijk carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.24 for Emmen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.21 goals for Waalwijk and 1.12 for Emmen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Waalwijk rate 0.68 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Emmen rate 0.59 and 2.00.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Emmen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Waalwijk a 8.3% chance of the title and Emmen 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Waalwijk the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Waalwijk against 1.12 for Emmen. Waalwijk's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2 for Emmen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Waalwijk at home · Emmen away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Waalwijk 8, Emmen 8.
Waalwijk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Emmen have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Waalwijk
- at Heracles9 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
- vs FC Volendam18 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
- at De Graafschap23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
- vs Almere City FC30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
- at FC OSS6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
Emmen
- at Dordrecht9 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
- vs Almere City FC17 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- at Vitesse23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
- vs Den Bosch30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
- vs MVV8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.