AEK Athens FC
vs
Levski Sofia
UEFA Champions League prediction
The model makes it 53% AEK Athens FC, 29% draw, 18% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 1.89, 3.45 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: AEK Athens FC 1.40, Levski Sofia 0.71.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
AEK Athens FC
No earlier matches on record this season.
Levski Sofia
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv7 August 2026
- W3-0Septemvri Sofia1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia25 July 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | First League | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. AEK Athens FC has not started the league season yet. Full tables
The two sides
AEK Athens FC carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.6 for Levski Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Levski Sofia W-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.71 for Levski Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AEK Athens FC rate 0.75 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levski Sofia rate 0.54 and 0.99.
That points to 35% for over two and a half goals and 39% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (16%), 0-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 317 correct results out of 659 settled predictions (48%), with 62 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for AEK Athens FC against 0.71 for Levski Sofia. AEK Athens FC's attack/defence rating is 0.75/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/0.99 for Levski Sofia.