26 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Allwyn Arena, Athens
Full time4 – 0

Final score: AEK Athens FC 4-0 Levski Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% AEK Athens FC, 23% draw, 15% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Champions League Play-offs tie. First leg: Levski Sofia 0–0 AEK Athens FC (18 Aug) →

AEK Athens FC went through 4–0 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

AEK Athens FC at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AEK Athens FC99%Draw1%Levski Sofia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽L. Jovicassist: L. Rota
7'
⚽B. Vargaassist: F. Relvas
12'
⚽B. Vargaassist: L. Majer
29'
Răzvan Marin
51'
⚽R. Marin (pen)
55'
63'
🔁Everton Balaout: G. Trdin
63'
🔁Reinaldoout: J. Perea
63'
🔁Maiconout: D. Kusso
🔁A. Koitaout: P. Mantalos
72'
Stavros Pilios
74'
76'
🔁A. Oko-Flexout: M. Soula
🔁B. Vargaout: Zini
81'
🔁L. Majerout: O. Zubkov
81'
82'
🔁Serginhoout: A. Mitkov
🔁L. Jovicout: M. Gacinovic
86'
🔁R. Marinout: K. Arriaga
86'
Zini
89'

Match stats — AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia

48%Possession52%
18Shots11
7On target3
6Corners3

Line-ups

AEK Athens FC 4-4-2
  • 1T. StrakoshaG
  • 12L. RotaD
  • 2H. MoukoudiD
  • 44F. RelvasD
  • 3S. PiliosD
  • 14L. MajerM
  • 18R. MarinM
  • 6K. KairinenM
  • 11A. KoitaM
  • 25B. VargaF
  • 9L. JovicF
Substitutes
  • 91A. BrignoliG
  • 41M. BalamotisG
  • 21D. VidaD
  • 15M. GeorgievD
  • 20P. MantalosM
  • 8M. GacinovicM
  • 16K. ArriagaM
  • 90ZiniF
  • 17D. KaloskamisM
Coach: Marko Nikolic
Levski Sofia 4-3-3
  • 92S. VutsovG
  • 21A. NevesD
  • 50K. DimitrovD
  • 31N. SerafimovD
  • 20A. CentellesD
  • 35SerginhoM
  • 19M. MoubarikM
  • 3MaiconM
  • 11A. Oko-FlexF
  • 17Everton BalaF
  • 7ReinaldoF
Substitutes
  • 78M. LukovG
  • 1O. VladimirovG
  • 4C. MakounD
  • 2S. HeverttonD
  • 22M. SoulaF
  • 10A. MitkovM
  • 18G. TrdinM
  • 9J. PereaF
  • 77A. RaychevF
Coach: Julio Velazquez

Form going into AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia

AEK Athens FC

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0Iraklis 190822 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Levski Sofia18 August 2026

Levski Sofia

All competitions we cover

  • W6-0Spartak Varna22 August 2026
  • D0-0AEK Athens FC18 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Kairat Almaty11 August 2026
  • W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv7 August 2026
  • W1-0Kairat Almaty4 August 2026

What these results say

  • Levski Sofia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Levski Sofia kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Levski Sofia won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia

  • 18 August 2026Levski Sofia 0–0 AEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League

Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.

The result against the call

AEK Athens FC beat Levski Sofia 4–0. The model had made a win for AEK Athens FC its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: L. Jovic 7' for AEK Athens FC, B. Varga 12' for AEK Athens FC, B. Varga 29' for AEK Athens FC, R. Marin (penalty) 55' for AEK Athens FC.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.