Trabzonspor
vs
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 40% Trabzonspor, 23% draw, 37% Gençlerbirliği S.K. — fair odds of 2.50, 4.35 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Trabzonspor 1.77, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.69.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Trabzonspor
- D1-1away to Kasımpaşa15 August 2026
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- W2-1Fenerbahçe15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trabzonspor | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Trabzonspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- 17 May 2026Trabzonspor 0–3 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 13 May 2026Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–2 TrabzonsporTürkiye Kupası
- 22 December 2025Gençlerbirliği S.K. 4–3 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
- 8 February 2024Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–2 TrabzonsporTürkiye Kupası
- 15 May 2021Trabzonspor 2–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 23 January 2021Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–2 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
Leading scorers
Trabzonspor
- N. Saviolo1 goals
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Trabzonspor carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.69 for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Trabzonspor D; Gençlerbirliği S.K. W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Trabzonspor and 1.69 for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Trabzonspor rate 0.73 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gençlerbirliği S.K. rate 0.93 and 1.28.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gençlerbirliği S.K., while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Trabzonspor the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Trabzonspor against 1.69 for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. Trabzonspor's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.28 for Gençlerbirliği S.K..