Juventus
vs
Lazio
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Juventus 1–0 Lazio
The model makes it 45% Juventus, 30% draw, 25% Lazio — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Juventus 1.48, Lazio 0.82.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Juventus are 7th on 10 points from 5 games; Lazio are 3rd on 13 points from 5 games — Serie A.
- Juventus have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Atalanta.
- Lazio are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Venezia.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 February 2026, ended Juventus 2–2 Lazio.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Juventus vs Lazio
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Juventus at 45% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Juventus vs Lazio
Juventus
- W2-0Atalanta20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sassuolo13 September 2026
- D1-1AC Milan6 September 2026
- W2-0Parma29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Frosinone23 August 2026
Lazio
- W2-0away to Venezia19 September 2026
- D2-2AC Milan12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Udinese7 September 2026
- W1-0Genoa30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Bologna24 August 2026
What these results say
- Juventus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Juventus had two goals or fewer.
- Lazio went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lazio scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lazio won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Juventus vs Lazio
- 8 February 2026Juventus 2–2 LazioSerie A
- 26 October 2025Lazio 1–0 JuventusSerie A
- 10 May 2025Lazio 1–1 JuventusSerie A
- 19 October 2024Juventus 1–0 LazioSerie A
- 23 April 2024Lazio 2–1 JuventusCoppa Italia
- 2 April 2024Juventus 2–0 LazioCoppa Italia
Leading scorers: Juventus and Lazio
Juventus
- E. Zhegrova2 goals1 assist
Lazio
- D. Frattesi3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Juventus carry a model rating of 7.18 against 6.94 for Lazio. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Juventus and 0.82 for Lazio. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Juventus rate 1.32 in attack and 0.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lazio rate 0.96 and 0.81.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lazio, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juventus the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Juventus against 0.82 for Lazio. Juventus's attack/defence rating is 1.32/0.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/0.81 for Lazio.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Juventus at home · Lazio away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Juventus 5, Lazio 5.
Juventus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Lazio have let in 0 there.
Lazio score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Juventus have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Juventus
- vs Rennes22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 58%
- at Lecce25 Oct · Serie Awin 52%
- at Genoa28 Oct · Serie Awin 51%
Lazio
- vs Parma24 Oct · Serie Awin 42%
- at Sassuolo27 Oct · Serie Awin 36%
- vs Cagliari1 Nov · Serie Awin 37%
- at Napoli8 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.