Leicester
vs
Stevenage
League One prediction
Our model says: Leicester 1–0 Stevenage
The model makes it 48% Leicester, 29% draw, 23% Stevenage — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Leicester 1.50, Stevenage 0.87.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Leicester: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Leicester are 14th on 12 points from 9 games; Stevenage are 12th on 12 points from 9 games — League One.
- Leicester have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Doncaster.
- Stevenage have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Bradford.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leicester vs Stevenage
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leicester at 48% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Leicester vs Stevenage
Leicester
- W2-1Doncaster17 October 2026
- L1-3Peterborough10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Barnsley19 September 2026
- W4-3away to Stockport County12 September 2026
- L0-4Oxford United5 September 2026
Stevenage
- L0-2away to Bradford17 October 2026
- W1-0Wigan10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Leyton Orient19 September 2026
- W2-1Luton10 September 2026
- W5-1away to Barnsley5 September 2026
What these results say
- Leicester conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Leicester scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Leicester had three goals or more.
- Stevenage conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Leicester | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Leicester
Chance to finish in the top four · 33% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Leicester vs Stevenage
- 6 October 2026Stevenage 2–1 LeicesterEFL Trophy
The two sides
Leicester carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.29 for Stevenage. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Leicester and 0.87 for Stevenage. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leicester rate 0.66 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stevenage rate 0.47 and 1.49.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Stevenage, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leicester a 8.1% chance of the title and Stevenage 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leicester the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Leicester against 0.87 for Stevenage. Leicester's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.49 for Stevenage.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Leicester at home · Stevenage away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Leicester 9, Stevenage 9.
Leicester score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Stevenage have let in 0 there.
Stevenage score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Leicester have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Leicester
- vs Bradford14 Nov · League Onewin 41%
- at Huddersfield21 Nov · League Onewin 32%
Stevenage
- vs Mansfield Town14 Nov · League Onewin 38%
- at Notts County21 Nov · League Onewin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.