Stevenage
vs
Plymouth
League One prediction
Our model says: Stevenage 0–1 Plymouth
The model makes it 34% Stevenage, 30% draw, 36% Plymouth — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Stevenage 1.21, Plymouth 1.28.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Stevenage and Plymouth are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Stevenage are 13th on 9 points from 7 games; Plymouth are top on 16 points from 9 games — League One.
- Stevenage have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Leyton Orient.
- Plymouth have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win away to Leyton Orient.
- Last 6 meetings: Plymouth 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 March 2026, ended Plymouth 1–0 Stevenage.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Stevenage vs Plymouth
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Plymouth at 36% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stevenage vs Plymouth
Stevenage
- L0-1away to Leyton Orient19 September 2026
- W2-1Luton10 September 2026
- W5-1away to Barnsley5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Peterborough1 September 2026
- D2-2Doncaster29 August 2026
Plymouth
- W2-0away to Leyton Orient3 October 2026
- L0-1Burton Albion26 September 2026
- W4-2away to Blackpool19 September 2026
- W3-0Barnsley12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Doncaster5 September 2026
What these results say
- Stevenage conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Plymouth won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Plymouth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Stevenage | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 9 |
| 1 | Plymouth | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stevenage vs Plymouth
- 17 March 2026Plymouth 1–0 StevenageLeague One
- 1 January 2026Stevenage 1–1 PlymouthLeague One
- 25 January 2020Stevenage 1–2 PlymouthLeague Two
- 29 December 2019Plymouth 2–1 StevenageLeague Two
- 10 November 2018Plymouth 1–0 StevenageFA Cup
- 14 January 2017Plymouth 4–2 StevenageLeague Two
Leading scorers: Stevenage and Plymouth
Stevenage
- D. Kemp3 goals1 assist
Plymouth
- A. Pepple4 goals
- W. Evans3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stevenage carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.42 for Plymouth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Stevenage and 1.28 for Plymouth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stevenage rate 0.48 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Plymouth rate 0.70 and 1.66.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stevenage a 0.8% chance of the title and Plymouth 17.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Plymouth the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Stevenage against 1.28 for Plymouth. Stevenage's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.66 for Plymouth.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stevenage at home · Plymouth away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Stevenage 7, Plymouth 9.
Stevenage score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Plymouth have let in 2 there.
Plymouth score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Stevenage have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Stevenage
- vs Milton Keynes Dons24 Oct · League Onewin 41%
- at Leicester31 Oct · League Onewin 26%
Plymouth
- at Cambridge United24 Oct · League Onewin 36%
- vs Reading31 Oct · League Onewin 42%
- at Sheffield Wednesday14 Nov · League Onewin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.