Mansfield Town
vs
Notts County
League One prediction
Our model says: Mansfield Town 1–0 Notts County
The model makes it 48% Mansfield Town, 28% draw, 24% Notts County — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Mansfield Town 1.53, Notts County 0.90.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Mansfield Town: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Mansfield Town are 13th on 12 points from 9 games; Notts County are 23rd on 7 points from 9 games — League One.
- Mansfield Town are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Oxford United.
- Notts County have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Wycombe.
- Last 6 meetings: Mansfield Town 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 February 2024, ended Mansfield Town 1–0 Notts County.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mansfield Town vs Notts County
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mansfield Town at 48% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mansfield Town vs Notts County
Mansfield Town
- D1-1Oxford United15 October 2026
- W2-1Bromley10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Burton Albion19 September 2026
- D0-0Huddersfield12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Bradford5 September 2026
Notts County
- L0-2away to Wycombe17 October 2026
- L1-2Oxford United10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Reading19 September 2026
- L0-1Bradford12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Huddersfield5 September 2026
What these results say
- Mansfield Town failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mansfield Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Notts County did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Notts County conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Notts County had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mansfield Town | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 12 |
| 23 | Notts County | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Mansfield Town
Chance to finish in the top four · 11% today
Notts County
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Mansfield Town vs Notts County
- 3 February 2024Mansfield Town 1–0 Notts CountyLeague Two
- 14 October 2023Notts County 1–4 Mansfield TownLeague Two
- 16 February 2019Notts County 1–0 Mansfield TownLeague Two
- 8 December 2018Mansfield Town 2–0 Notts CountyLeague Two
- 17 March 2018Notts County 1–1 Mansfield TownLeague Two
- 24 October 2017Notts County 1–2 Mansfield TownEFL Trophy
Leading scorers: Mansfield Town and Notts County
Mansfield Town
GoalsAssists
- N. Moriah-Welsh32
Notts County
No player in League One's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mansfield Town carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.16 for Notts County. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Mansfield Town and 0.90 for Notts County. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mansfield Town rate 0.57 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Notts County rate 0.43 and 1.76.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mansfield Town a 1.6% chance of the title and Notts County 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mansfield Town the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Mansfield Town against 0.90 for Notts County. Mansfield Town's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.76 for Notts County.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mansfield Town at home · Notts County away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Mansfield Town 9, Notts County 9.
Mansfield Town score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Notts County have let in 2 there.
Notts County score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Mansfield Town have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Mansfield Town
- at Stevenage14 Nov · League Onewin 32%
Notts County
- at Bromley14 Nov · League Onewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.