Cambridge United
vs
Wycombe
League One prediction
Our model says: Cambridge United 2–1 Wycombe
The model makes it 42% Cambridge United, 27% draw, 31% Wycombe — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cambridge United 1.86, Wycombe 1.44.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Cambridge United are 6th on 13 points from 8 games; Wycombe are 12th on 10 points from 8 games — League One.
- Cambridge United are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to AFC Wimbledon.
- Wycombe are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Reading.
- Last 6 meetings: Wycombe 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 1 February 2025, ended Cambridge United 1–1 Wycombe.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cambridge United vs Wycombe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cambridge United at 42% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cambridge United vs Wycombe
Cambridge United
- D1-1AFC Wimbledon26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Oxford United19 September 2026
- W2-1Reading12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Burton Albion5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Bradford1 September 2026
Wycombe
- D2-2Reading26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Wigan19 September 2026
- W3-2away to Leyton Orient12 September 2026
- D3-3Milton Keynes Dons5 September 2026
- L1-2Sheffield Wednesday1 September 2026
What these results say
- Cambridge United went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Cambridge United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cambridge United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wycombe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wycombe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Wycombe had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cambridge United | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Wycombe | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cambridge United vs Wycombe
- 1 February 2025Cambridge United 1–1 WycombeLeague One
- 21 September 2024Wycombe 2–1 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
- 23 April 2024Cambridge United 1–1 WycombeLeague One
- 31 October 2023Wycombe 0–0 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
- 18 April 2023Cambridge United 1–2 WycombeLeague One
- 25 October 2022Wycombe 2–3 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cambridge United carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.3 for Wycombe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Cambridge United and 1.44 for Wycombe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cambridge United rate 0.61 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wycombe rate 0.65 and 2.00.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cambridge United a 3.9% chance of the title and Wycombe 1.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cambridge United the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Cambridge United against 1.44 for Wycombe. Cambridge United's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/2 for Wycombe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cambridge United at home · Wycombe away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Cambridge United 8, Wycombe 8.
Cambridge United score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Wycombe have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Cambridge United
- vs Plymouth24 Oct · League Onewin 36%
- at Sheffield Wednesday27 Oct · League Onewin 31%
- at Leyton Orient31 Oct · League Onewin 35%
Wycombe
- at AFC Wimbledon24 Oct · League Onewin 38%
- vs Burton Albion31 Oct · League Onewin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.