Notts County
vs
Sheffield Wednesday
League One prediction
Our model says: Notts County 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday
The model makes it 35% Notts County, 31% draw, 34% Sheffield Wednesday — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Notts County 1.18, Sheffield Wednesday 1.17.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Notts County are 20th on 7 points from 7 games; Sheffield Wednesday are 4th on 14 points from 7 games — League One.
- Notts County are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Reading.
- Sheffield Wednesday are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Stockport County.
- Last 3 meetings: Sheffield Wednesday 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 August 2014, ended Sheffield Wednesday 3–0 Notts County.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Notts County at 35% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday
Notts County
- L0-2away to Reading19 September 2026
- L0-1Bradford12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Huddersfield5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Doncaster1 September 2026
- W2-1Burton Albion29 August 2026
Sheffield Wednesday
- D0-0Stockport County19 September 2026
- D0-0Wigan12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Peterborough5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Wycombe1 September 2026
- W7-2Bromley29 August 2026
What these results say
- Notts County conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Notts County failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Notts County had two goals or fewer.
- Sheffield Wednesday went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Notts County | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 4 | Sheffield Wednesday | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday
- 12 August 2014Sheffield Wednesday 3–0 Notts CountyLeague Cup
- 17 March 2012Notts County 1–2 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
- 20 August 2011Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 Notts CountyLeague One
Leading scorers: Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday
Notts County
No player in League One's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Sheffield Wednesday
- J. Lowe4 goals1 assist
- L. Barry3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Notts County carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.32 for Sheffield Wednesday. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Notts County and 1.17 for Sheffield Wednesday. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Notts County rate 0.48 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sheffield Wednesday rate 0.56 and 1.62.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sheffield Wednesday, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Notts County a 0.6% chance of the title and Sheffield Wednesday 5.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Notts County the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Notts County against 1.17 for Sheffield Wednesday. Notts County's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.62 for Sheffield Wednesday.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Notts County at home · Sheffield Wednesday away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Notts County 7, Sheffield Wednesday 7.
Notts County score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Sheffield Wednesday have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Notts County
- vs Stockport County24 Oct · League Onewin 32%
Sheffield Wednesday
- at Doncaster24 Oct · League Onewin 36%
- vs Cambridge United27 Oct · League Onewin 40%
- vs Blackpool1 Nov · League Onewin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.