Burton Albion
vs
Bradford
League One prediction
Our model says: Burton Albion 1–0 Bradford
The model makes it 34% Burton Albion, 32% draw, 34% Bradford — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Burton Albion 1.04, Bradford 1.05.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Burton Albion and Bradford are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Burton Albion are 8th on 12 points from 9 games; Bradford are 2nd on 16 points from 8 games — League One.
- Burton Albion have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Huddersfield.
- Bradford are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Reading.
- Last 6 meetings: Burton Albion 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Burton Albion 2–1 Bradford.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Burton Albion vs Bradford
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burton Albion at 34% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Burton Albion vs Bradford
Burton Albion
- L1-3Huddersfield3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Plymouth26 September 2026
- D2-2Mansfield Town19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Oxford United12 September 2026
- D2-2Cambridge United5 September 2026
Bradford
- D1-1away to Reading3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Luton19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Notts County12 September 2026
- W1-0Mansfield Town5 September 2026
- L1-2Cambridge United1 September 2026
What these results say
- Burton Albion failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burton Albion scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burton Albion conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bradford scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bradford had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Burton Albion | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 2 | Bradford | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Burton Albion vs Bradford
- 21 March 2026Burton Albion 2–1 BradfordLeague One
- 8 November 2025Bradford 1–2 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 18 October 2022Burton Albion 4–0 BradfordEFL Trophy
- 26 January 2019Burton Albion 1–1 BradfordLeague One
- 21 August 2018Bradford 1–0 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 8 March 2016Bradford 2–0 Burton AlbionLeague One
Leading scorers: Burton Albion and Bradford
Burton Albion
- J. Armer3 goals1 assist
Bradford
No player in League One's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Burton Albion carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.38 for Bradford. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.04 goals for Burton Albion and 1.05 for Bradford. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Burton Albion rate 0.54 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bradford rate 0.46 and 1.27.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bradford, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Burton Albion a 0.4% chance of the title and Bradford 7.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burton Albion the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Burton Albion against 1.05 for Bradford. Burton Albion's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.27 for Bradford.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Burton Albion at home · Bradford away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Burton Albion 9, Bradford 8.
Burton Albion score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Bradford have let in 0 there.
Bradford score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Burton Albion have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Burton Albion
- vs Leyton Orient24 Oct · League Onewin 39%
- at Wycombe31 Oct · League Onewin 30%
- at Milton Keynes Dons14 Nov · League Onewin 33%
Bradford
- at Oxford United24 Oct · League Onewin 28%
- vs Huddersfield31 Oct · League Onewin 36%
- at Leicester14 Nov · League Onewin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.