FC Nordsjaelland
vs
Brondby
Superliga prediction
The model makes it 55% FC Nordsjaelland, 21% draw, 24% Brondby — fair odds of 1.82, 4.76 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: FC Nordsjaelland 2.15, Brondby 1.36.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Nordsjaelland
- W1-0Randers FC2 August 2026
- D1-1away to AC Horsens26 July 2026
Brondby
- W2-0away to AC Horsens9 August 2026
- W1-0Viborg2 August 2026
- D1-1away to Aarhus25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 1 | Brondby | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Nordsjaelland carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.5 for Brondby. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Nordsjaelland D-W; Brondby D-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.15 goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 1.36 for Brondby. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Nordsjaelland rate 0.94 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brondby rate 0.58 and 1.21.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Brondby, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Nordsjaelland the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.15 expected goals for FC Nordsjaelland against 1.36 for Brondby. FC Nordsjaelland's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.21 for Brondby.