Helmond Sport
vs
Heracles
Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Helmond Sport 2-2 Heracles.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Helmond Sport, 30% draw, 37% Heracles — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Helmond Sport 1.15, Heracles 1.31.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Helmond Sport vs Heracles
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heracles at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Helmond Sport vs Heracles
Line-ups
- 1M. BergsenG
- 20S. DekkersD
- 4B. KoglinD
- 43T. LandheerD
- 5T. PollD
- 7J. van der SluijsM
- 6M. LudwigM
- 44Xander van der VeldeM
- 8Pol LlonchM
- 11L. CiceroF
- 34T. EssakkatiF
- 14Brian van den BoogaardD
- 23A. El MaachG
- 30K. EkoliF
- 22A. DizdarevićM
- 10D. HuibertsM
- 94Mauro LenaertsF
- 3F. Van Den EyndenD
- 2R. van BreeD
- 21Ward van SleeuwenG
- 1F. de KeijzerG
- 15David VicenteD
- 4D. MiraniD
- 14M. WruschD
- 25MannyD
- 5D. van der KustM
- 32S. SchepermanM
- 7C. AbbasM
- 17T. van GilstM
- 18M. HauswirthM
- 27J. N'djoliF
- 3Mario BoracD
- 10T. BrunsM
- 35S. BultmanD
- 8M. EngelsM
- 16T. JansinkG
- 26D. van KaamM
- 23M. te WierikD
- 33L. ZeevalkinkG
- 6D. TomićM
Form going into Helmond Sport vs Heracles
Helmond Sport
- L0-2away to MVV26 September 2026
- L1-2away to Den Bosch18 September 2026
- W3-1Jong PSV U2111 September 2026
- W4-2VVV Venlo4 September 2026
Heracles
- W2-0Vitesse26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Almere City FC18 September 2026
- W3-2Jong AZ11 September 2026
- W5-0De Graafschap4 September 2026
What these results say
- Helmond Sport conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Helmond Sport scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Helmond Sport had three goals or more.
- Heracles won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Heracles scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 9 |
| 1 | Heracles | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Helmond Sport vs Heracles
- 2 October 2026Helmond Sport 2–2 HeraclesEerste Divisie
- 5 August 2023Heracles 2–0 Helmond SportFriendlies Clubs
- 21 April 2023Helmond Sport 0–1 HeraclesEerste Divisie
- 23 September 2022Heracles 2–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Helmond Sport and Heracles
Helmond Sport
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Heracles
- J. N'djoli11 goals1 assist
- T. van Gilst6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.15 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.31 for Heracles; the game produced 2 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Maurice Wrusch 6' (Heracles), Tarik Essakkati 13' (Helmond Sport), Manny Rodriguez Baldera 44' (Heracles), Sem Dekkers 54' (Helmond Sport).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heracles the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Helmond Sport against 1.31 for Heracles. Helmond Sport's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.47 for Heracles.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.