Eldense vs Oviedo Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Eldense 4-1 Oviedo.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Eldense, 31% draw, 40% Oviedo — fair odds of 3.45, 3.23 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Oviedo at 40%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Eldense vs Oviedo
Line-ups
- 1Ramón VilaG
- 19A. IbarrondoD
- 5Alex SerradellD
- 4F. SmandD
- 2Iker RecioD
- 15Carlos GuiraoM
- 18Guillermo MachoM
- 10FidelM
- 24Javi MartínezM
- 20Waldo RubioM
- 11Manu NietoF
- 34J. OlaizolaD
- 13JuanpaG
- 29Dinis RodriguesF
- 7Jorge RastrojoF
- 22J. YandaD
- 8Marcos BustilloM
- 6Borja CalvoM
- 17Jesús ClementeD
- 3Juan LariosD
- 1Miguel NarváezG
- 21David JiménezD
- 12Dani CalvoD
- 23Carlos DomínguezD
- 15S. RodriguezD
- 5Y. DidiM
- 6Dani VillahermosaM
- 8Mikel GotiM
- 10Alberto ReinaM
- 11Jacobo GonzálezF
- 20Pablo SáenzF
- 22Nacho VidalD
- 32Enzo PerezM
- 18V. MingoF
- 28D. MenendezM
- 30Marco EstebanD
- 3Juan CruzD
- 4David CostasD
- 2AisarM
- 33Óscar de la HeraF
Form going into Eldense vs Oviedo
Eldense
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Burgos27 September 2026
- L1-2Eibar19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sporting Gijon13 September 2026
- D0-0Mallorca5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Leganes29 August 2026
Oviedo
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Sporting Gijon27 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sabadell20 September 2026
- W3-0away to Valladolid13 September 2026
- D0-0Burgos6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Albacete29 August 2026
What these results say
- Eldense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Eldense had two goals or fewer.
- Oviedo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oviedo kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Eldense | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Eldense vs Oviedo
- 10 February 2025Oviedo 0–0 EldenseSegunda División
- 21 September 2024Eldense 1–1 OviedoSegunda División
- 4 February 2024Oviedo 1–1 EldenseSegunda División
- 1 October 2023Eldense 1–3 OviedoSegunda División
Leading scorers: Eldense and Oviedo
Eldense
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Oviedo
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Domínguez50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Eldense beat Oviedo 4–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Oviedo at 40% and given a win for Eldense 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Alberto Reina 1' for Oviedo, Roberto López (penalty) 56' for Eldense, Fidel (penalty) 68' for Eldense, Aingeru Olabarrieta 90' for Eldense, Jorge Rastrojo 90+5' for Eldense.
How the call on Eldense v Oviedo has moved
First published on 20 Sep at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 29% / 31% / 40%: the biggest move is Eldense's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Eldense win29%▼ −6
- Draw31%▲ +2
- Oviedo win40%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.