31 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón Segunda División prediction & result

Municipal de Barreiro, Vigo
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Celta de Vigo II 1-2 Castellón.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Celta de Vigo II, 29% draw, 31% Castellón — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Celta de Vigo II at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Celta de Vigo II0%Draw5%Castellón95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽F. Castillo
🔁A. Antanonout: H. Burcio
46'
🔁P. Meixusout: A. Kibet
46'
48'
⚽P. Santiagoassist: F. Castillo
54'
Ousmane Camara
59'
Francisco Castillo
64'
🔁I. Cordobaout: R. Sanchez
🔁A. Capdevilaout: H. F. Cuenca Martinez
65'
🔁A. Marinout: B. Somuah
65'
65'
🔁Juanjo Nietoout: L. Alcazar
65'
🔁F. Castilloout: A. Gala
Joel López Salguero
74'
⚽O. Marcosassist: H. F. Cuenca Martinez
79'
80'
🔁P. Santiagoout: R. Rego
🔁O. Marcosout: A. Davila
82'
90'
Álvaro Martín
90'
🔁Barriout: J. Vlak

Match stats — Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón

46%Possession54%
12Shots13
4On target5
3Corners3
0.92xG1.97

Goals against chances

Celta de Vigo II1 from 0.92 xGabout what the chances were worth
Castellón2 from 1.97 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Celta de Vigo II 3-4-3
  • 1J. B. CarrilloG
  • 3K. RibesD
  • 6P. MeixusD
  • 20A. RodriguezD
  • 23G. MillaM
  • 16A. CapdevilaM
  • 8A. AntanonM
  • 18J. LopezM
  • 10O. MarcosF
  • 9A. MarinF
  • 11A. ArcosF
Substitutes
  • 13Caio BaroneG
  • 25M. GonzalezG
  • 14J. OliverasD
  • 21A. OlmedoD
  • 4S. M. NdiayeD
  • 2P. GavianD
  • 29M. SobralD
  • 17H. F. Cuenca MartinezM
  • 5H. BurcioM
Coach: Fredi Alvarez
Castellón 3-4-2-1
  • 13R. MatthysG
  • 22J. MellotD
  • 5A. JimenezD
  • 4A. SienraD
  • 2Juanjo NietoM
  • 21AlvaroM
  • 8BarriM
  • 14I. CordobaM
  • 18P. SantiagoF
  • 17F. CastilloF
  • 9O. CamaraF
Substitutes
  • 1A. SaipiG
  • 35S. Torner RosellG
  • 30M. WillmanD
  • 12L. AlcazarD
  • 10I. SueroM
  • 23A. GarciaF
  • 27A. GalaM
  • 25J. VlakM
  • 7R. SanchezF
Coach: Pablo Hernandez

Form going into Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón

Celta de Vigo II

  • W4-2FC Andorra24 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Cadiz15 August 2026

Castellón

  • D0-0Sabadell23 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Real Sociedad II14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Celta de Vigo II7223811-38
1Castellón7610142+1219

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Celta de Vigo II and Castellón

Celta de Vigo II

  • A. Marin3 goals

Castellón

  • Ousmane Camara4 goals1 assist
  • Israel Suero2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.