Celta de Vigo II
vs
Castellón
Segunda División prediction
The model makes it 25% Celta de Vigo II, 35% draw, 40% Castellón — fair odds of 4.00, 2.86 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Celta de Vigo II 0.70, Castellón 0.97.
Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 24%, under 2.5: 76%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Celta de Vigo II
- D0-0away to Cadiz15 August 2026
Castellón
- W1-0away to Real Sociedad II14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celta de Vigo II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Castellón | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Celta de Vigo II
No league goals recorded yet.
Castellón
- Ousmane Camara1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Celta de Vigo II carry a model rating of 6.7 against 7.08 for Castellón. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Celta de Vigo II D; Castellón W.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.70 goals for Celta de Vigo II and 0.97 for Castellón. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celta de Vigo II rate 0.66 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Castellón rate 0.74 and 0.56.
That points to 24% for over two and a half goals and 32% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (19%), 0-1 (18%), 1-1 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 446 correct results out of 915 settled predictions (49%), with 86 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Castellón the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.7 expected goals for Celta de Vigo II against 0.97 for Castellón. Celta de Vigo II's attack/defence rating is 0.66/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/0.56 for Castellón.