Burgos vs Real Sociedad II Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Burgos 2-2 Real Sociedad II.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Burgos, 29% draw, 28% Real Sociedad II — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burgos at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Burgos vs Real Sociedad II
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13A. CanteroG
- 23A. Dadie IzagirreD
- 6S. GonzalezD
- 8G. SierraD
- 3I. VilarrasaD
- 14D. Gonzalez BallesterosM
- 20J. GrageraM
- 4P. GaldamesM
- 19J. LlabresM
- 16C. SanchezF
- 9A. ForesF
- 37C. TorrelavidG
- 1B. IribarneG
- 22B. MartinezD
- 36I. MartinezD
- 18S. del CerroM
- 10K. AppinM
- 5M. ExpositoM
- 17M. CanteroM
- 11V. MollejoF
- 1A. FragaG
- 2J. GarroD
- 3J. BaldaD
- 5K. KitaD
- 23U. AgoteD
- 8I. AguirreM
- 6A. LebarbierM
- 7D. DiazM
- 16G. GorosabelM
- 17L. AstiazaranM
- 18G. CarreraF
- 32L. OlasagastiG
- 13T. FolgadoG
- 22I. RuperezD
- 29I. RoperoD
- 26B. IsasaD
- 30P. VazquezD
- 21J. EceizabarrenaM
- 14T. CarbonellM
- 10A. MariezkurrenaF
Form going into Burgos vs Real Sociedad II
Burgos
- L0-1away to Sporting Gijon23 August 2026
- W3-2Cordoba16 August 2026
Real Sociedad II
- W2-1away to Albacete22 August 2026
- L0-1Castellón14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Burgos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Burgos vs Real Sociedad II
- 18 July 2026Burgos 2–0 Real Sociedad IIFriendlies Clubs
- 3 May 2026Real Sociedad II 0–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 25 October 2025Burgos 1–0 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 13 March 2022Burgos 0–0 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 5 December 2021Real Sociedad II 0–1 BurgosSegunda División
- 31 July 2021Real Sociedad II 0–0 BurgosFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Burgos and Real Sociedad II
Burgos
- Álex Forés3 goals1 assist
- David González3 goals1 assist
Real Sociedad II
- Gorka Gorosabel2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.