Burgos
vs
Real Sociedad II
Segunda División prediction
The model makes it 59% Burgos, 28% draw, 13% Real Sociedad II — fair odds of 1.69, 3.57 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (20%).
Expected goals: Burgos 1.43, Real Sociedad II 0.52.
Both teams to score: 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Burgos
- W3-2Cordoba16 August 2026
Real Sociedad II
- L0-1Castellón14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Burgos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Burgos carry a model rating of 7.1 against 6.65 for Real Sociedad II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Burgos W; Real Sociedad II L.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Burgos and 0.52 for Real Sociedad II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Burgos rate 0.72 in attack and 0.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Sociedad II rate 0.69 and 1.05.
That points to 31% for over two and a half goals and 31% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (20%), 0-0 (15%), 2-0 (15%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 446 correct results out of 915 settled predictions (49%), with 86 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burgos the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Burgos against 0.52 for Real Sociedad II. Burgos's attack/defence rating is 0.72/0.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.05 for Real Sociedad II.