Burgos vs Cordoba Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Burgos 3-2 Cordoba.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Burgos, 27% draw, 24% Cordoba — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Burgos at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Burgos vs Cordoba
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13A. CanteroG
- 23A. Dadie IzagirreD
- 6S. GonzalezD
- 8G. SierraD
- 3I. VilarrasaD
- 20J. GrageraM
- 10K. AppinM
- 14D. Gonzalez BallesterosM
- 16CurroM
- 19J. LlabresM
- 9A. ForesF
- 35D. GonzalezG
- 22B. MartinezD
- 36I. MartinezD
- 18S. del CerroM
- 4P. GaldamesM
- 5M. ExpositoM
- 17M. CanteroM
- 24S. LencinaM
- 11V. MollejoF
- 1I. AlvarezG
- 27E. Munoz
- 5J. GutierrezD
- 16R. AlvesD
- 3D. TasendeD
- 22Y. DiarraM
- 8I. RuizM
- 28E. GarciaM
- 23C. CarracedoF
- 15V. SanchezF
- 18E. RodriguezF
- 13Guilherme FernandesG
- 21C. AlbarranD
- 4Alex MartinD
- 32Alex Lopez
- 7T. ZidaneM
- 6D. CaceresM
- 9PercanF
- 19I. Sanz
- 11D. BriD
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Burgos | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 24 |
| 11 | Cordoba | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Burgos vs Cordoba
- 22 March 2026Burgos 4–0 CordobaSegunda División
- 3 January 2026Cordoba 2–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 10 May 2025Burgos 3–2 CordobaSegunda División
- 26 August 2024Cordoba 2–2 BurgosSegunda División
Leading scorers: Burgos and Cordoba
Burgos
GoalsAssists
- Álex Forés41
Cordoba
GoalsAssists
- Percan61
- Eder García42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Burgos beat Cordoba 3–2. The model had made a win for Burgos its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Y. Diarra 11' for Cordoba, A. Fores 24' for Burgos, J. Llabres 37' for Burgos, E. Garcia 45' for Cordoba, D. Gonzalez Ballesteros 90' for Burgos. On expected goals it finished 1.64–2.30.