Union Santa Fe vs Lanus Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Union Santa Fe 2-1 Lanus.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Union Santa Fe, 29% draw, 21% Lanus — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Union Santa Fe at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union Santa Fe vs Lanus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 21Matías MansillaG
- 35Lautaro VargasD
- 2Maizon RodriguezD
- 26Juan Pablo LudueñaD
- 18Lucas AyalaD
- 5Lucas MenossiM
- 20Julián PalaciosM
- 17Joaquin MosqueiraM
- 10Ignacio MalcorraM
- 25Cristian TarragonaF
- 31Misael AguirreF
- 19Marcelo EstigarribiaF
- 12Bruno PittónD
- 11Mauro LunaM
- 8Emilio GiacconeM
- 15Juan PintadoD
- 40Lucas MeuliG
- 44Tomás FagioliD
- 36Mateo AimarD
- 22Brahian CuelloM
- 26Nahuel LosadaG
- 4Gonzalo PerezD
- 24Carlos IzquierdozD
- 35Ronaldo De JesusD
- 6Sasha MarcichD
- 17Agustín MedinaM
- 30Agustín CardozoM
- 16Matías SepúlvedaM
- 23Ramiro CarreraM
- 77Lucas BesozziM
- 19Yoshan ValoisF
- 11Eduardo SalvioM
- 5Felipe Peña BiaforeM
- 25Dylan AquinoF
- 20Allan WlkF
- 9Walter BouF
- 1Franco PetroliG
- 33Tomás GuidaraD
- 2Luciano RomeroD
- 3Nicolás MorgantiniD
Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Lanus
Union Santa Fe
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Platense25 July 2026
Lanus
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Instituto Cordoba3 August 2026
- W1-0San Lorenzo26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 21 |
| 5 | Lanus | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Lanus
- 29 January 2026Lanus 2–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 13 September 2024Lanus 1–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 March 2024Lanus 2–2 Union Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 5 November 2023Union Santa Fe 0–0 LanusCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 17 June 2023Union Santa Fe 1–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Lanus
Union Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- C. Tarragona172
Lanus
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Union Santa Fe beat Lanus 2–1. The model had made a win for Union Santa Fe its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: L. Menossi 53' for Union Santa Fe, F. Pena Biafore 73' for Lanus, J. Mosqueira 76' for Union Santa Fe. On expected goals it finished 0.45–1.04.