Union Santa Fe
vs
Lanus
The model makes it 50% Union Santa Fe, 29% draw, 21% Lanus — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Union Santa Fe 1.41, Lanus 0.83.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Union Santa Fe
- L0-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Platense25 July 2026
- L0-2away to Belgrano Cordoba12 May 2026
- W2-1away to Independiente Rivadavia10 May 2026
- D1-1Talleres Cordoba2 May 2026
Lanus
- L0-1Instituto Cordoba3 August 2026
- W1-0San Lorenzo26 July 2026
- L0-2away to Argentinos Juniors10 May 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Riestra2 May 2026
- D0-0Central Cordoba de Santiago24 April 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Lanus
- 29 January 2026Lanus 2–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 13 September 2024Lanus 1–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 March 2024Lanus 2–2 Union Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 5 November 2023Union Santa Fe 0–0 LanusCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 17 June 2023Union Santa Fe 1–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 July 2022Union Santa Fe 3–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers
Union Santa Fe
- C. Tarragona9 goals
Lanus
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Union Santa Fe carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.64 for Lanus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Union Santa Fe D-W-L-D-L; Lanus D-D-L-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Union Santa Fe and 0.83 for Lanus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union Santa Fe rate 0.85 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lanus rate 0.48 and 0.88.
That points to 39% for over two and a half goals and 43% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lanus, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Union Santa Fe a 3.2% chance of the title and Lanus 5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union Santa Fe the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Union Santa Fe against 0.83 for Lanus. Union Santa Fe's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/0.88 for Lanus.