Panathinaikos
vs
Borac Banja Luka
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Panathinaikos 2–0 Borac Banja Luka
The model makes it 61% Panathinaikos, 23% draw, 16% Borac Banja Luka — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Panathinaikos 2.51, Borac Banja Luka 0.73.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Panathinaikos are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Kalamata.
- Borac Banja Luka are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Vikingur Reykjavik.
All Conference League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Panathinaikos at 61% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka
Panathinaikos
- W1-0away to Kalamata20 September 2026
- W3-0Panetolikos13 September 2026
- W3-1Kifisia10 September 2026
- W3-1PAOK6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Levadiakos31 August 2026
Borac Banja Luka
- W3-1Vikingur Reykjavik27 August 2026
- W3-1away to Vikingur Reykjavik20 August 2026
- W1-0ML Vitebsk6 August 2026
- D3-3away to Petrocub30 July 2026
- W3-0Petrocub23 July 2026
What these results say
- Panathinaikos won every one of these 5 matches.
- Panathinaikos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Borac Banja Luka went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Borac Banja Luka scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Borac Banja Luka won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Panathinaikos and Borac Banja Luka in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | Super League 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Borac Banja Luka has not started the league season yet. Full tables: Super League 1 · UEFA Europa Conference League
Head-to-head: Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka
- 3 October 2024Borac Banja Luka 1–1 PanathinaikosUEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Panathinaikos and Borac Banja Luka
Panathinaikos
- V. Taborda3 goals1 assist
- A. Tetteh3 goals
Borac Banja Luka
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Panathinaikos carry a model rating of 7.02 against 6.58 for Borac Banja Luka. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.51 goals for Panathinaikos and 0.73 for Borac Banja Luka. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Panathinaikos rate 1.13 in attack and 0.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Borac Banja Luka rate 0.75 and 1.29.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Panathinaikos the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Panathinaikos against 0.73 for Borac Banja Luka. Panathinaikos's attack/defence rating is 1.13/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.29 for Borac Banja Luka.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Panathinaikos
- vs Asteras Tripolis17 Oct · Super League 1win 61%
- at Kairat Almaty22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 67%
- at Volos NFC24 Oct · Super League 1win 58%
- vs AEK Athens FC31 Oct · Super League 1win 34%
Borac Banja Luka
- vs KuPS22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 49%
- at Mjallby AIF5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 38%
- vs Atalanta26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 25%
- at Heart of Midlothian10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 28%
- vs Riga17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 63%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.