Nottingham Forest
vs
Tottenham
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 35% Nottingham Forest, 27% draw, 38% Tottenham — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 1.31, Tottenham 1.39.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham
- 22 March 2026Tottenham 0–3 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 14 December 2025Nottingham Forest 3–0 TottenhamPremier League
- 21 April 2025Tottenham 1–2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 26 December 2024Nottingham Forest 1–0 TottenhamPremier League
- 7 April 2024Tottenham 3–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 15 December 2023Nottingham Forest 0–2 TottenhamPremier League
The two sides
Nottingham Forest carry a model rating of 6.88 against 7.09 for Tottenham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.39 for Tottenham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nottingham Forest rate 1.12 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tottenham rate 0.93 and 0.62.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tottenham the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Nottingham Forest against 1.39 for Tottenham. Nottingham Forest's attack/defence rating is 1.12/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/0.62 for Tottenham.