Zenit vs CSKA Moscow Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Zenit 1-2 CSKA Moscow.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Zenit, 26% draw, 22% CSKA Moscow — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zenit at 52% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 707 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Zenit vs CSKA Moscow
Line-ups
- 16D. AdamovG
- 31Gustavo MantuanD
- 25K. AndradeD
- 28N. AlipD
- 66R. VegaD
- 5W. BarriosM
- 93A. KarpukasM
- 11Luiz HenriqueM
- 10M. GlushenkovM
- 14Jhon JhonM
- 7A. SobolevF
- 71D. OdoevskiyG
- 57B. MoskvichevG
- 3Douglas SantosD
- 33NinoD
- 15V. KaravaevD
- 82S. VolkovD
- 21A. ErokhinM
- 38A. MusaevM
- 61D. KondakovM
- 49V. ToropG
- 4Joao VictorD
- 79K. DanilovD
- 23D. AbdulkadyrovD
- 21M. AzziM
- 10I. OblyakovM
- 31M. KislyakM
- 2Matheus ReisM
- 3D. KrugovoyF
- 17K. GlebovF
- 32L. GondouF
- 85E. BesaevG
- 39M. BoriskoG
- 90M. LukinD
- 20M. PopovicM
- 87A. PonomarchukM
- 84A. VakulichM
- 7Matheus AlvesM
- 18D. KozlovM
- 52A. BandikyanM
Form going into Zenit vs CSKA Moscow
Zenit
- W1-0away to Fakel29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Spartak Moscow23 August 2026
CSKA Moscow
- D2-2away to Akron28 August 2026
- W3-2Lokomotiv22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Zenit | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 18 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zenit vs CSKA Moscow
- 2 May 2026CSKA Moscow 1–3 ZenitPremier League
- 10 February 2026Zenit 2–2 CSKA MoscowFriendlies Clubs
- 3 August 2025Zenit 1–1 CSKA MoscowPremier League
- 14 May 2025CSKA Moscow 2–0 ZenitCup
- 30 April 2025Zenit 2–0 CSKA MoscowCup
- 1 March 2025Zenit 0–0 CSKA MoscowPremier League
Leading scorers: Zenit and CSKA Moscow
Zenit
- A. Sobolev7 goals2 assists
- M. Glushenkov6 goals2 assists
CSKA Moscow
- I. Oblyakov4 goals
- I. Oleynikov3 goals3 assists
- L. Gondou3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.