Zenit
vs
CSKA Moscow
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 64% Zenit, 22% draw, 14% CSKA Moscow — fair odds of 1.56, 4.55 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Zenit 1.91, CSKA Moscow 0.76.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Zenit
- W3-0Dynamo16 August 2026
- L1-2Rodina Moskva9 August 2026
- W3-0away to FC Orenburg2 August 2026
- W5-0away to Akron25 July 2026
CSKA Moscow
- W1-0Fakel15 August 2026
- D0-0FC Rostov8 August 2026
- D1-1Krylia Sovetov1 August 2026
- W2-1Baltika24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Zenit | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Zenit vs CSKA Moscow
- 2 May 2026CSKA Moscow 1–3 ZenitPremier League
- 10 February 2026Zenit 2–2 CSKA MoscowFriendlies Clubs
- 3 August 2025Zenit 1–1 CSKA MoscowPremier League
- 14 May 2025CSKA Moscow 2–0 ZenitCup
- 30 April 2025Zenit 2–0 CSKA MoscowCup
- 1 March 2025Zenit 0–0 CSKA MoscowPremier League
Leading scorers
Zenit
- M. Glushenkov5 goals2 assists
- A. Sobolev4 goals1 assists
CSKA Moscow
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Zenit carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.47 for CSKA Moscow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Zenit W-W-L-W; CSKA Moscow W-D-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Zenit and 0.76 for CSKA Moscow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zenit rate 0.84 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Moscow rate 0.54 and 1.20.
That points to 50% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zenit the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Zenit against 0.76 for CSKA Moscow. Zenit's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.2 for CSKA Moscow.