5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Burnley vs Bristol City Championship prediction & result

Turf Moor, Burnley
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Burnley 1-2 Bristol City.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Burnley, 27% draw, 22% Bristol City — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Burnley at 51% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 707 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Burnley6%Draw91%Bristol City3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Hjalmar Ekdal
45+2'
🔁Andréas Hountondjiout: Armando Broja
45'
🔁Hjalmar Ekdalout: Anel Ahmedhodzic
45'
⚽Aaron Ramseyassist: Reo Hatate
56'
61'
🔁Jed Wallaceout: Yu Hirakawa
61'
🔁Gibson Osahumen Yahout: Dominic Ballard
🔁Reo Hatateout: Zeki Amdouni
63'
🔁Largie Ramazaniout: Jacob Bruun Larsen
70'
72'
🔁Scott Twineout: Sam Greenwood
72'
🔁Cameron Pringout: George Tanner
80'
🔁lorent tolajout: Elijah Adebayo
82'
⚽Robert Dickieassist: Rio Cardines
Kyle Walker
83'
🔁Aaron Ramseyout: Hannibal Mejbri
85'
90+1'
⚽Yu Hirakawa
Armando Broja
90+4'

Match stats — Burnley vs Bristol City

53%Possession47%
8Shots14
2On target4
5Corners8

Line-ups

Burnley 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. WeißG
  • 2K. WalkerD
  • 18H. EkdalD
  • 3Max AlleyneD
  • 22O. SonneD
  • 8U. RaghouberM
  • 29J. LaurentM
  • 21A. RamseyM
  • 5R. HatateM
  • 19L. RamazaniM
  • 17A. HountondjiF
Substitutes
  • 15A. AhmedhodžićD
  • 11Z. AmdouniF
  • 27A. BrojaF
  • 7J. Bruun LarsenF
  • 30L. CastellF
  • 37G. CoudertG
  • 99IgorD
  • 28H. MejbriM
  • 14C. RobertsD
Coach: N. Hayen
Bristol City 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. TickleG
  • 21Rio CardinesD
  • 16R. DickieD
  • 2L. EissatD
  • 3C. PringD
  • 12J. KnightM
  • 8J. WilliamsM
  • 17J. WallaceM
  • 27G. YahM
  • 10S. TwineM
  • 9L. TolajF
Substitutes
  • 14T. HorvatM
  • 4A. RandellM
  • 19G. TannerD
  • 7Y. HirakawaM
  • 20S. GreenwoodM
  • 38N. EileD
  • 40B. CollinsG
  • 23D. BallardF
  • 99E. AdebayoF
Coach: M. Skubala

Form going into Burnley vs Bristol City

Burnley

  • D1-1Middlesbrough2 September 2026

Bristol City

  • W3-1away to Preston1 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
24Burnley8044917-84
8Bristol City84131112-113

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Burnley vs Bristol City

  • 5 September 2026Burnley 1–2 Bristol CityChampionship
  • 29 March 2025Burnley 1–0 Bristol CityChampionship
  • 23 November 2024Bristol City 0–1 BurnleyChampionship
  • 29 April 2023Bristol City 1–2 BurnleyChampionship
  • 17 September 2022Burnley 2–1 Bristol CityChampionship
  • 28 January 2017Burnley 2–0 Bristol CityFA Cup

Leading scorers: Burnley and Bristol City

Burnley

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Bristol City

  • D. Ballard3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.