Paks
vs
Debreceni VSC
NB I prediction
The model makes it 60% Paks, 19% draw, 21% Debreceni VSC — fair odds of 1.67, 5.26 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Paks 2.61, Debreceni VSC 1.53.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Paks
- W2-0Ujpest21 August 2026
- L2-3away to Puskas Academy16 August 2026
- D2-2Budapest Honved9 August 2026
- L2-5away to Zalaegerszegi TE3 August 2026
- W4-2Ferencvarosi TC26 July 2026
Debreceni VSC
- D1-1Gyori ETO FC16 August 2026
- W1-0Nyiregyhaza9 August 2026
- L2-4away to Ujpest2 August 2026
- L0-2Puskas Academy26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Paks | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Debreceni VSC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Paks vs Debreceni VSC
- 3 May 2026Paks 5–2 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 7 February 2026Debreceni VSC 1–0 PaksNB I
- 18 October 2025Paks 1–1 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 18 May 2025Debreceni VSC 0–0 PaksNB I
- 22 February 2025Paks 4–3 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 19 October 2024Debreceni VSC 0–5 PaksNB I
Leading scorers
Paks
- J. Szalai5 goals1 assists
- M. Pető3 goals
Debreceni VSC
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Paks carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.39 for Debreceni VSC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Paks W-L-D-L-W; Debreceni VSC L-L-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.61 goals for Paks and 1.53 for Debreceni VSC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Paks rate 1.13 in attack and 2.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Debreceni VSC rate 0.44 and 1.22.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paks the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.61 expected goals for Paks against 1.53 for Debreceni VSC. Paks's attack/defence rating is 1.13/2.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.22 for Debreceni VSC.