FC Rostov
vs
Fakel
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 37% FC Rostov, 32% draw, 31% Fakel — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Rostov 1.07, Fakel 0.97.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Rostov
- D1-1Rubin15 August 2026
- D0-0away to CSKA Moscow8 August 2026
- W4-2away to Rodina Moskva31 July 2026
- L1-2away to FC Orenburg26 July 2026
Fakel
- L0-1away to CSKA Moscow15 August 2026
- D0-0Akhmat10 August 2026
- L2-3away to FC Krasnodar2 August 2026
- L1-2Dinamo Makhachkala25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Rostov | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 16 | Fakel | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: FC Rostov vs Fakel
- 15 July 2026FC Rostov 2–1 FakelFriendlies Clubs
- 7 July 2026Fakel 3–1 FC RostovFriendlies Clubs
- 20 April 2025Fakel 0–2 FC RostovPremier League
- 1 September 2024FC Rostov 4–1 FakelPremier League
- 27 June 2024Fakel 0–1 FC RostovFriendlies Clubs
- 14 April 2024Fakel Voronezh 0–1 FC RostovPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Rostov carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.29 for Fakel. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Rostov L-W-D-D; Fakel L-L-D-L.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for FC Rostov and 0.97 for Fakel. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Rostov rate 0.42 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fakel rate 0.40 and 1.35.
That points to 33% for over two and a half goals and 41% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Rostov the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for FC Rostov against 0.97 for Fakel. FC Rostov's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/1.35 for Fakel.