5 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

FC Rostov vs Fakel Premier League prediction & result

Rostov Arena, Rostov
Full time3 – 1

Final score: FC Rostov 3-1 Fakel.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% FC Rostov, 33% draw, 30% Fakel — fair odds of 2.70, 3.03 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Rostov at 37% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Rostov99%Draw1%Fakel0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Houdaifa El Mahasni
Oumar Sako
45+1'
⚽A. Mironovassist: O. Olusegun
56'
⚽K. Kuchaevassist: T. Suleymanov
59'
⚽O. Sakoassist: A. Mironov
64'
65'
🔁D. Todorovicout: A. Bagamaev
65'
🔁A. Sutorminout: A. Kovalev
65'
🔁H. El Mhassaniout: B. Pusi
65'
🔁A. Gnapi Dableout: M. Turishchev
72'
Butta Magomedov
🔁O. Olusegunout: M. Mukhin
76'
80'
🔁A. Gabaraevout: A. Koksharov
🔁T. Suleymanovout: A. Shamonin
83'
🔁I. Komarovout: I. Aznaurov
83'
89'
⚽A. Koksharov
90+1'
Belajdi Pusi
🔁A. Mironovout: D. Prokhin
90'

Match stats — FC Rostov vs Fakel

46%Possession54%
12Shots10
6On target3
4Corners1

Line-ups

FC Rostov 5-4-1
  • 84A. PetrovG
  • 5Y. MikhailovD
  • 4V. MelekhinD
  • 3O. SakoD
  • 40Ygor NogueiraD
  • 87A. LangovichD
  • 10I. KomarovM
  • 8A. MironovM
  • 18K. KuchaevM
  • 6O. OlusegunM
  • 99T. SuleymanovF
Substitutes
  • 34D. A. GolikovG
  • 22D. SemenchukD
  • 27D. ProkhinD
  • 16M. MukhinM
  • 21D. ShantaliyM
  • 80K. MadrakhimovF
  • 17E. GolenkovF
  • 91A. ShamoninF
  • 11I. M. AjasaF
Coach: Jonatan Alba
Fakel 3-4-3
  • 1D. FrolkinG
  • 5A. GabaraevD
  • 40Clayton SampaioD
  • 53M. BardachevD
  • 22H. El MhassaniM
  • 23V. YakimovM
  • 97B. MagomedovM
  • 55D. TodorovicM
  • 99N. GiorgobianiF
  • 9A. Gnapi DableF
  • 11A. SutorminF
Substitutes
  • 96I. ObukhovG
  • 35V. DorovskikhG
  • 20I. YurganovD
  • 44Y. ZhuravlevD
  • 8A. BagamaevM
  • 52R. NetfullinM
  • 17A. KovalevM
  • 90A. KoksharovF
  • 19B. PusiF
Coach: Oleg Vasilenko

Form going into FC Rostov vs Fakel

FC Rostov

  • L0-1away to FC Krasnodar29 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Akhmat22 August 2026

Fakel

  • L0-1Zenit29 August 2026
  • D0-0FC Orenburg22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12FC Rostov92251017-78
16Fakel9036613-73

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Rostov vs Fakel

  • 15 July 2026FC Rostov 2–1 FakelFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 July 2026Fakel 3–1 FC RostovFriendlies Clubs
  • 20 April 2025Fakel 0–2 FC RostovPremier League
  • 1 September 2024FC Rostov 4–1 FakelPremier League
  • 27 June 2024Fakel 0–1 FC RostovFriendlies Clubs
  • 14 April 2024Fakel Voronezh 0–1 FC RostovPremier League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.