Krylia Sovetov
vs
Dinamo Makhachkala
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 22% Krylia Sovetov, 30% draw, 48% Dinamo Makhachkala — fair odds of 4.55, 3.33 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (16%).
Expected goals: Krylia Sovetov 0.77, Dinamo Makhachkala 1.28.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Krylia Sovetov
- L0-2Baltika8 August 2026
- D1-1away to CSKA Moscow1 August 2026
- D0-0away to Dynamo25 July 2026
Dinamo Makhachkala
- L1-3away to Dynamo9 August 2026
- W2-1Lokomotiv1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Fakel25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Krylia Sovetov | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 5 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Krylia Sovetov carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.51 for Dinamo Makhachkala. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Krylia Sovetov D-D-L; Dinamo Makhachkala W-W-L.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.77 goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.28 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Krylia Sovetov rate 0.39 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Makhachkala rate 0.47 and 1.05.
That points to 34% for over two and a half goals and 39% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (16%), 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Makhachkala the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov against 1.28 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Krylia Sovetov's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.05 for Dinamo Makhachkala.