Baltika
vs
Spartak Moscow
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 43% Baltika, 29% draw, 28% Spartak Moscow — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Baltika 1.31, Spartak Moscow 1.01.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Baltika
- W2-0away to Krylia Sovetov8 August 2026
- W2-1Dynamo1 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA Moscow24 July 2026
Spartak Moscow
- W2-1away to Akhmat2 August 2026
- W3-0Rodina Moskva25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Baltika | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 | Spartak Moscow | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Baltika
- B. Gil2 goals
Spartak Moscow
- Marquinhos1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Baltika carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.29 for Spartak Moscow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Baltika L-W-W; Spartak Moscow W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Baltika and 1.01 for Spartak Moscow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Baltika rate 0.44 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Spartak Moscow rate 0.50 and 1.57.
That points to 41% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Spartak Moscow, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Baltika the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Baltika against 1.01 for Spartak Moscow. Baltika's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.57 for Spartak Moscow.