16 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Baltika vs Spartak Moscow Premier League prediction & result

Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Baltika 1-2 Spartak Moscow.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Baltika, 28% draw, 28% Spartak Moscow — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Baltika at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Baltika0%Draw4%Spartak Moscow96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽M. Ugaldeassist: M. Daku
⚽A. Mendel
23'
Mingiyan Beveev
47'
49'
⚽P. Solari
🔁M. Petrovout: F. Moufi
58'
🔁C. Offorout: B. Gil
58'
Aymane Mourid
73'
Eduardo Anderson
76'
Nikolay Titkov
76'
76'
Manfred Ugalde
76'
Gedson Fernandes
76'
Christopher Wooh
77'
🔁P. Solariout: V. Saus
🔁E. Civicout: M. Ryadno
78'
🔁A. Mendelout: I. Belikov
78'
🔁out: V. Pospelov
85'
87'
🔁R. Zobninout: V. Parada
90+2'
🔁M. Ugaldeout: D. Prutsev
90+2'
🔁Marquinhosout: I. Dmitriev

Match stats — Baltika vs Spartak Moscow

35%Possession65%
12Shots7
5On target4
5Corners8

Line-ups

Baltika 5-4-1
  • 1E. LatyshonokG
  • 22M. BeveevD
  • 2S. VaratynovD
  • 21E. AndersonD
  • 4N. GassamaD
  • 77E. CivicD
  • 73M. PetrovM
  • 8A. MendelM
  • 5A. MouridM
  • 11N. TitkovM
  • 9C. OfforF
Substitutes
  • 81I. KukushkinG
  • 44E. LyubakovG
  • 18F. MoufiD
  • 24L. MouyokoloD
  • 68M. RyadnoD
  • 14S. KovacM
  • 7K. ShiltsovM
  • 42V. PospelovM
  • 10I. PetrovM
Coach: Andrey Talalaev
Spartak Moscow 4-1-4-1
  • 98A. MaksimenkoG
  • 83G. FernandesD
  • 3C. WoohD
  • 6S. BabicD
  • 47R. ZobninD
  • 68R. LitvinovM
  • 7P. SolariM
  • 18N. UmyarovM
  • 19M. DakuM
  • 10MarquinhosM
  • 9M. UgaldeF
Substitutes
  • 56A. DovbnyaG
  • 1I. PomazunG
  • 33V. ParadaD
  • 4A. DjikuD
  • 97D. DenisovD
  • 25D. PrutsevM
  • 17V. SausM
  • 40I. SorokinM
  • 27I. DmitrievM
Coach: Carlos Carcedo Juan

Form going into Baltika vs Spartak Moscow

Baltika

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Krylia Sovetov8 August 2026

Spartak Moscow

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2FC Krasnodar9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Baltika144551715+217
3Spartak Moscow149232711+1629

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Baltika vs Spartak Moscow

  • 29 November 2025Baltika 1–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 26 July 2025Spartak Moscow 0–3 BaltikaPremier League
  • 14 May 2024Baltika 1–0 Spartak MoscowCup
  • 25 November 2023Baltika 0–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 31 July 2023Spartak Moscow 2–1 BaltikaPremier League

Leading scorers: Baltika and Spartak Moscow

Baltika

GoalsAssists

  • B. Gil51

Spartak Moscow

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ugalde60
  • M. Daku51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Spartak Moscow won 2–1 at Baltika. The model had leaned towards a win for Baltika at 44% and given a win for Spartak Moscow 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Ugalde 20' for Spartak Moscow, A. Mendel 23' for Baltika, P. Solari 49' for Spartak Moscow.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.