Puskas Academy
vs
Paks
NB I prediction
The model makes it 47% Puskas Academy, 19% draw, 34% Paks — fair odds of 2.13, 5.26 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Puskas Academy 2.61, Paks 2.21.
Both teams to score: 83%. Over 2.5 goals: 86%, under 2.5: 14%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Puskas Academy
- W3-2away to MTK Budapest7 August 2026
- L0-2Kisvarda FC31 July 2026
- W2-0away to Debreceni VSC26 July 2026
Paks
- D2-2Budapest Honved9 August 2026
- L2-5away to Zalaegerszegi TE3 August 2026
- W4-2Ferencvarosi TC26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Puskas Academy | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Paks | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Puskas Academy
- A. Németh2 goals
Paks
- J. Szalai3 goals1 assists
- M. Pető2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Puskas Academy carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.58 for Paks. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Puskas Academy W-L-W; Paks W-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.61 goals for Puskas Academy and 2.21 for Paks. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Puskas Academy rate 0.55 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paks rate 1.13 and 2.51.
That points to 86% for over two and a half goals and 83% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (6%), 3-2 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Puskas Academy the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.61 expected goals for Puskas Academy against 2.21 for Paks. Puskas Academy's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/2.51 for Paks.