Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 1 · 8 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Rodez vs Laval

Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez

The model makes it 57% Rodez, 25% draw, 18% Laval — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Rodez 1.65, Laval 0.80.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

45%
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-0 14%1-1 12%2-0 12%

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Rodez34151364539+658
16Laval34614143048-1832

Where the two sides stand. Full tables

Head-to-head: Rodez vs Laval

  • 24 April 2026Laval 0–0 RodezLigue 2
  • 22 August 2025Rodez 1–1 LavalLigue 2
  • 18 April 2025Laval 2–1 RodezLigue 2
  • 24 September 2024Rodez 1–3 LavalLigue 2
  • 27 January 2024Rodez 1–2 LavalLigue 2
  • 19 August 2023Laval 1–0 RodezLigue 2

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Rodez carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.7 for Laval. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Rodez and 0.80 for Laval. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Rodez rate 0.99 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Laval rate 0.58 and 0.88.

That points to 44% for over two and a half goals and 45% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (12%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Rodez the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Rodez against 0.8 for Laval. Rodez's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/0.88 for Laval.