Bursaspor
vs
Bandırmaspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Bursaspor 1–0 Bandırmaspor
The model makes it 49% Bursaspor, 29% draw, 22% Bandırmaspor — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Bursaspor 1.49, Bandırmaspor 0.81.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Bursaspor: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bursaspor are 2nd on 22 points from 10 games; Bandırmaspor are 9th on 14 points from 10 games — 1. Lig.
- Bursaspor have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Muğlaspor.
- Bandırmaspor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Bodrum FK.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 14 May 2022, ended Bandırmaspor 4–2 Bursaspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bursaspor at 49% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor
Bursaspor
- W3-0away to Muğlaspor15 October 2026
- L1-2Mardin 196911 October 2026
- W2-1away to Batman Petrolspor19 September 2026
- D2-2Esenler Erokspor13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Manisa F.K.7 September 2026
Bandırmaspor
- L1-2away to Bodrum FK17 October 2026
- D1-1Sivasspor13 October 2026
- W2-0away to Vanspor FK9 October 2026
- L0-1Ümraniyespor18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sarıyer11 September 2026
What these results say
- Bursaspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bursaspor had three goals or more.
- Bursaspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bandırmaspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bandırmaspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bandırmaspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bursaspor | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 22 |
| 9 | Bandırmaspor | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bursaspor
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 50% today
Bandırmaspor
Chance to finish in the top four · 11% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor
- 14 May 2022Bandırmaspor 4–2 Bursaspor1. Lig
- 19 December 2021Bursaspor 0–1 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
- 15 April 2021Bursaspor 2–1 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
- 8 December 2020Bandırmaspor 1–2 Bursaspor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Bursaspor and Bandırmaspor
Bursaspor
GoalsAssists
- K. Ịheanachọ143
Bandırmaspor
GoalsAssists
- G. Bruno40
- A. Badji33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bursaspor carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.51 for Bandırmaspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Bursaspor and 0.81 for Bandırmaspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bursaspor rate 0.81 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bandırmaspor rate 0.54 and 1.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bursaspor a 50.2% chance of the title and Bandırmaspor 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bursaspor the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Bursaspor against 0.81 for Bandırmaspor. Bursaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.13 for Bandırmaspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bursaspor at home · Bandırmaspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Bursaspor 10, Bandırmaspor 10.
Bursaspor score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Bandırmaspor have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bursaspor
- at Antalyaspor6 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
- vs Sivasspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 59%
- at Vanspor FK29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 53%
Bandırmaspor
- vs Fatih Karagümrük8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 40%
- at Mardin 196921 Nov · 1. Ligwin 24%
- vs Batman Petrolspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 50%
- at Manisa F.K.6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.