Fatih Karagümrük
vs
Pendikspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Fatih Karagümrük 2–0 Pendikspor
The model makes it 57% Fatih Karagümrük, 25% draw, 18% Pendikspor — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Fatih Karagümrük 1.93, Pendikspor 0.86.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Fatih Karagümrük: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fatih Karagümrük are 11th on 13 points from 10 games; Pendikspor are 15th on 10 points from 10 games — 1. Lig.
- Fatih Karagümrük have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Mardin 1969.
- Pendikspor are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Vanspor FK.
- Last 6 meetings: Pendikspor 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 May 2025, ended Pendikspor 2–0 Fatih Karagümrük.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fatih Karagümrük at 57% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor
Fatih Karagümrük
- L0-1away to Mardin 196915 October 2026
- D1-1Muğlaspor11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Esenler Erokspor19 September 2026
- D1-1Manisa F.K.13 September 2026
- L3-4away to Batman Petrolspor6 September 2026
Pendikspor
- L1-2Vanspor FK13 October 2026
- L1-4away to Sivasspor9 October 2026
- D1-1Bodrum FK20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Boluspor12 September 2026
- W1-0Ümraniyespor5 September 2026
What these results say
- Fatih Karagümrük failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fatih Karagümrük scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fatih Karagümrük conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pendikspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pendikspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pendikspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Fatih Karagümrük | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 13 |
| 15 | Pendikspor | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fatih Karagümrük
Chance to finish in the top four · 26% today
Pendikspor
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor
- 4 May 2025Pendikspor 2–0 Fatih Karagümrük1. Lig
- 4 January 2025Fatih Karagümrük 0–2 Pendikspor1. Lig
- 10 February 2024Fatih Karagümrük 2–0 PendiksporSüper Lig
- 23 September 2023Pendikspor 1–1 Fatih KaragümrükSüper Lig
- 24 March 2019Pendikspor 2–0 Fatih Karagümrük2. Lig
- 4 November 2018Fatih Karagümrük 4–1 Pendikspor2. Lig
Leading scorers: Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor
Fatih Karagümrük
GoalsAssists
- A. Pešić52
Pendikspor
GoalsAssists
- Thuram31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fatih Karagümrük carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.25 for Pendikspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.86 for Pendikspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fatih Karagümrük rate 0.67 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pendikspor rate 0.53 and 1.77.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fatih Karagümrük a 3.6% chance of the title and Pendikspor 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fatih Karagümrük the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük against 0.86 for Pendikspor. Fatih Karagümrük's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.77 for Pendikspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fatih Karagümrük at home · Pendikspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Fatih Karagümrük 10, Pendikspor 10.
Fatih Karagümrük score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Pendikspor have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Fatih Karagümrük
- at Bandırmaspor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 29%
- vs Boluspor21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 69%
- at Antalyaspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 29%
Pendikspor
- vs İstanbulspor7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 48%
- at Manisa F.K.22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 26%
- vs Iğdır FK29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.