Universidad de Chile
vs
Nublense
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Universidad de Chile 2–0 Nublense
The model makes it 52% Universidad de Chile, 27% draw, 21% Nublense — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Universidad de Chile 1.97, Nublense 0.84.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Universidad de Chile are 3rd on 42 points from 23 games; Nublense are 7th on 32 points from 23 games — Primera División.
- Universidad de Chile have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win away to Deportes La Serena.
- Nublense are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Everton de Vina.
- Last 6 meetings: Universidad de Chile 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Nublense 1–0 Universidad de Chile.
All Chilean Primera División predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Universidad de Chile vs Nublense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universidad de Chile at 52% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Universidad de Chile vs Nublense
Universidad de Chile
- W3-0away to Deportes La Serena13 September 2026
- W4-2Coquimbo Unido6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Universidad de Concepcion30 August 2026
- L1-2Colo Colo23 August 2026
- W3-1away to Deportes Limache15 August 2026
Nublense
- L1-3Everton de Vina12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Deportes La Serena6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Deportes Limache3 September 2026
- L0-1Concepción30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Universidad Catolica23 August 2026
What these results say
- Universidad de Chile scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Universidad de Chile had three goals or more.
- Universidad de Chile conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nublense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nublense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 19 | +16 | 42 |
| 7 | Nublense | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Universidad de Chile vs Nublense
- 12 April 2026Nublense 1–0 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
- 20 July 2025Nublense 2–2 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
- 15 February 2025Universidad de Chile 5–0 NublensePrimera División
- 20 November 2024Universidad de Chile 1–0 NublenseCopa Chile
- 3 November 2024Nublense 1–4 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
- 26 May 2024Universidad de Chile 0–0 NublensePrimera División
Leading scorers: Universidad de Chile and Nublense
Universidad de Chile
- E. Vargas8 goals3 assists
Nublense
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Universidad de Chile carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.36 for Nublense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.84 for Nublense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universidad de Chile rate 0.77 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nublense rate 0.58 and 1.55.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Universidad de Chile a 0.6% chance of the title and Nublense 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universidad de Chile the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Universidad de Chile against 0.84 for Nublense. Universidad de Chile's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.55 for Nublense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universidad de Chile at home · Nublense away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Universidad de Chile 23, Nublense 23.
Universidad de Chile score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Nublense have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Universidad de Chile
- vs Everton de Vina26 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 46%
- at Universidad Catolica1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
- vs Cobresal8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 56%
- at O'Higgins22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 41%
- at Concepción29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
Nublense
- vs Coquimbo Unido25 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
- at O'Higgins1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 30%
- vs Colo Colo8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 29%
- at Universidad de Concepcion22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
- vs Cobresal29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.