Malmo FF
vs
Kalmar FF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Malmo FF 2–0 Kalmar FF
The model makes it 50% Malmo FF, 27% draw, 23% Kalmar FF — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Malmo FF 1.96, Kalmar FF 0.93.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Malmo FF are 7th on 33 points from 22 games; Kalmar FF are 13th on 19 points from 22 games — Allsvenskan.
- Malmo FF have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Vasteras SK FK.
- Kalmar FF have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to BK Hacken.
- Last 6 meetings: Malmo FF 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 20 July 2026, ended Kalmar FF 2–2 Malmo FF.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Malmo FF at 50% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF
Malmo FF
- L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK19 September 2026
- W4-1Orgryte IS13 September 2026
- D0-0AIK Stockholm7 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sirius31 August 2026
- L0-3Djurgardens IF24 August 2026
Kalmar FF
- L0-5BK Hacken20 September 2026
- L0-1away to IF Elfsborg13 September 2026
- L0-1Djurgardens IF7 September 2026
- L0-1away to Halmstad29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Vasteras SK FK23 August 2026
What these results say
- Kalmar FF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Malmo FF | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 33 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF
- 20 July 2026Kalmar FF 2–2 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 20 March 2026Malmo FF 1–1 Kalmar FFFriendlies Clubs
- 24 August 2024Kalmar FF 2–2 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 24 May 2024Malmo FF 5–0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 8 October 2023Kalmar FF 1–0 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 1 April 2023Malmo FF 1–0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Malmo FF and Kalmar FF
Malmo FF
- E. Botheim10 goals3 assists
Kalmar FF
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Malmo FF carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.19 for Kalmar FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.96 goals for Malmo FF and 0.93 for Kalmar FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Malmo FF rate 0.70 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kalmar FF rate 0.45 and 1.72.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Malmo FF the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Malmo FF against 0.93 for Kalmar FF. Malmo FF's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.72 for Kalmar FF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Malmo FF at home · Kalmar FF away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Malmo FF 22, Kalmar FF 22.
Malmo FF score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Kalmar FF have let in 5 there.
Kalmar FF score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Malmo FF have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Malmo FF
- vs BK Hacken18 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 38%
- at IF Elfsborg23 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 32%
- at Halmstad28 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 47%
- vs Hammarby FF1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 29%
- at IFK Goteborg8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 38%
Kalmar FF
- at Degerfors IF19 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 30%
- vs IF Brommapojkarna24 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 33%
- vs Gais29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 24%
- at Mjallby AIF2 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 27%
- vs Sirius8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.