29 August 2026, 11:00 UTC

Karlsruher SC vs VfL Wolfsburg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

BBBank Wildpark, Karlsruhe
Full time2 – 5

Final score: Karlsruher SC 2-5 VfL Wolfsburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Karlsruher SC, 27% draw, 41% VfL Wolfsburg — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts VfL Wolfsburg at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Karlsruher SC0%Draw1%VfL Wolfsburg99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Fukudaassist: M. Franke
7'
10'
⚽A. Bernhardsson
⚽M. Wanitzekassist: L. Ben Farhat
12'
28'
⚽F. Reeseassist: J. Maehle
45'
⚽Vini Souzaassist: J. Maehle
🔁S. Fukudaout: J. D. Meyer
46'
🔁K. Wiethaupout: L. Egloff
58'
🔁S. Vaananenout: D. H. Zor
58'
🔁L. Ben Farhatout: N. Eichinger
58'
66'
🔁M. Damarout: M. Svanberg
66'
🔁K. Shiogaiout: R. Glatzel
72'
🔁E. Rexhbecajout: Y. Gerhardt
79'
🔁A. Bernhardssonout: A. Besio
80'
Vinícius Souza
🔁S. Jungout: P. Scholl
82'
88'
⚽H. Wahlassist: R. Glatzel
90'
⚽F. Reeseassist: A. Besio

Match stats — Karlsruher SC vs VfL Wolfsburg

42%Possession58%
18Shots27
5On target11
10Corners8
1.59xG3.03

Goals against chances

Karlsruher SC2 from 1.59 xGabout what the chances were worth
VfL Wolfsburg5 from 3.03 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Karlsruher SC 4-4-2
  • 1C. BernatG
  • 2S. JungD
  • 28M. FrankeD
  • 22C. KobaldD
  • 3D. OfliD
  • 7K. WiethaupM
  • 6S. VaananenM
  • 10M. WanitzekM
  • 33V. BerghM
  • 13S. FukudaF
  • 19L. Ben FarhatF
Substitutes
  • 30R. HimmelmannG
  • 24S. TremouletD
  • 15P. SchollD
  • 25L. EgloffM
  • 26D. H. ZorM
  • 23T. CivejaM
  • 37J. Ponente-RamirezF
  • 11N. EichingerF
  • 27J. D. MeyerF
Coach: Maximilian Senft
VfL Wolfsburg 4-3-3
  • 30J. ZielinskiG
  • 2K. FischerD
  • 6H. WahlD
  • 22M. AngelyD
  • 21J. MaehleD
  • 20M. DamarM
  • 5Vini SouzaM
  • 37E. RexhbecajM
  • 17A. BernhardssonF
  • 7K. ShiogaiF
  • 11F. ReeseF
Substitutes
  • 12P. PervanG
  • 18J. AdjeteyD
  • 33CleitonD
  • 27M. ArnoldM
  • 31Y. GerhardtM
  • 32M. SvanbergM
  • 14P. HenselM
  • 19R. GlatzelF
  • 23A. BesioF
Coach: Tobias Strobl

Form going into Karlsruher SC vs VfL Wolfsburg

Karlsruher SC

  • D0-0away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern15 August 2026

VfL Wolfsburg

  • W1-0away to Hannover 9616 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Karlsruher SC6123612-65
4VfL Wolfsburg6321158+711

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Karlsruher SC vs VfL Wolfsburg

  • 3 August 2013Karlsruher SC 1–3 VfL WolfsburgDFB Pokal

Leading scorers: Karlsruher SC and VfL Wolfsburg

Karlsruher SC

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

VfL Wolfsburg

  • R. Glatzel4 goals1 assist
  • F. Reese3 goals4 assists
  • A. Bernhardsson3 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.