29 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Max-Morlock-Stadion, Nuremberg
Full time4 – 1

Final score: 1. FC Nürnberg 4-1 Arminia Bielefeld.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% 1. FC Nürnberg, 23% draw, 26% Arminia Bielefeld — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts 1. FC Nürnberg at 51% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Nürnberg99%Draw1%Arminia Bielefeld0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. A. Zoma
11'
⚽T. Janischassist: F. Becker
22'
⚽A. Markhievassist: E. Porstner
38'
Kristian Mandic
45+1'
46'
🔁S. Schreckout: M. Worl
57'
🔁J. Grodowskiout: B. Boakye
Mohamed Ali Zoma
60'
🔁J. Justvanout: R. Lubach
63'
⚽A. Markhiev
67'
🔁T. Janischout: G. Masouras
70'
🔁P. Scobelout: S. Haugen
70'
71'
🔁M. Mehlemout: T. Wegener
71'
🔁J. Rocheltout: R. Uldrikis
76'
⚽M. Worl
82'
🔁M. Momuluhout: I. Young
🔁F. Beckerout: M. Soldic
83'
🔁M. A. Zomaout: R. Ghrieb
83'

Match stats — 1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld

53%Possession47%
13Shots21
6On target5
3Corners8
0.94xG1.19

Goals against chances

1. FC Nürnberg4 from 0.94 xGmore than the chances were worth
Arminia Bielefeld1 from 1.19 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Nürnberg 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. ReichertG
  • 32T. JanischD
  • 4A. KalogeropoulosD
  • 36K. MandicD
  • 41E. PorstnerD
  • 6A. MarkhievM
  • 8J. FernandezM
  • 10J. JustvanM
  • 22F. BeckerM
  • 23M. A. ZomaM
  • 19P. ScobelF
Substitutes
  • 13R. LisewskiG
  • 21G. MasourasD
  • 14A. CeresoliD
  • 44K. El HaijaM
  • 18R. LubachM
  • 35M. Kornwachs BarjuanD
  • 16M. SoldicM
  • 9S. HaugenF
  • 7R. GhriebF
Coach: Miroslav Klose
Arminia Bielefeld 4-4-2
  • 1J. KerskenG
  • 7H. KoudossouD
  • 5M. BauerD
  • 19M. GrosserD
  • 29T. HandwerkerD
  • 14M. MomuluhM
  • 8S. SchreckM
  • 21S. RussoM
  • 10J. RocheltM
  • 6M. MehlemF
  • 11J. GrodowskiF
Substitutes
  • 18L. OppermannG
  • 3J. FelixD
  • 17A. SickerD
  • 38M. WorlM
  • 44E. YasarM
  • 42T. WegenerM
  • 30I. YoungF
  • 28R. UldrikisF
  • 27B. BoakyeF
Coach: Oliver Kirch

Form going into 1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld

1. FC Nürnberg

  • W4-2away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth15 August 2026

Arminia Bielefeld

  • W3-0Energie Cottbus16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21. FC Nürnberg6510166+1016
13Arminia Bielefeld61231012-25

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld

  • 18 April 2026Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
  • 23 November 20251. FC Nürnberg 2–0 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
  • 19 July 2025Arminia Bielefeld 2–1 1. FC NürnbergFriendlies Clubs
  • 17 March 2023Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
  • 9 September 2022FC Nurnberg 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
  • 6 June 2020Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Nürnberg and Arminia Bielefeld

1. FC Nürnberg

  • M. Zoma6 goals
  • J. Justvan3 goals1 assist
  • P. Scobel3 goals1 assist

Arminia Bielefeld

  • J. Grodowski5 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.