1. FC Nürnberg
vs
Arminia Bielefeld
2. Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 57% 1. FC Nürnberg, 20% draw, 23% Arminia Bielefeld — fair odds of 1.75, 5.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.42, Arminia Bielefeld 1.54.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
1. FC Nürnberg
- W3-0Dynamo Dresden9 August 2026
Arminia Bielefeld
- L1-2away to Karlsruher SC8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 15 | Arminia Bielefeld | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
1. FC Nürnberg
- M. Zoma3 goals
Arminia Bielefeld
- M. Mehlem1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1. FC Nürnberg carry a model rating of 6.98 against 6.91 for Arminia Bielefeld. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): 1. FC Nürnberg W; Arminia Bielefeld L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.42 goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.54 for Arminia Bielefeld. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Nürnberg rate 1.23 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arminia Bielefeld rate 1.16 and 1.04.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (7%), 3-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Nürnberg the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.42 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.54 for Arminia Bielefeld. 1. FC Nürnberg's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/1.04 for Arminia Bielefeld.