Gaziantep FK
vs
Rizespor
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 44% Gaziantep FK, 24% draw, 32% Rizespor — fair odds of 2.27, 4.17 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Gaziantep FK 1.71, Rizespor 1.43.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor
- 13 April 2026Rizespor 2–1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
- 17 December 2025Rizespor 5–2 Gaziantep FKTürkiye Kupası
- 8 November 2025Gaziantep FK 2–2 RizesporSüper Lig
- 3 May 2025Rizespor 2–0 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
- 9 December 2024Gaziantep FK 1–0 RizesporSüper Lig
- 17 March 2024Rizespor 3–1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gaziantep FK carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.61 for Rizespor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.43 for Rizespor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gaziantep FK rate 0.68 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rizespor rate 0.82 and 1.33.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gaziantep FK the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Gaziantep FK against 1.43 for Rizespor. Gaziantep FK's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.33 for Rizespor.