AEK Athens FC
vs
Iraklis 1908
Super League 1 prediction
The model makes it 61% AEK Athens FC, 24% draw, 15% Iraklis 1908 — fair odds of 1.64, 4.17 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: AEK Athens FC 1.80, Iraklis 1908 0.78.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
The two sides
AEK Athens FC carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.48 for Iraklis 1908. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.78 for Iraklis 1908. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AEK Athens FC rate 0.75 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Iraklis 1908 rate 0.59 and 1.27.
That points to 48% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.8 expected goals for AEK Athens FC against 0.78 for Iraklis 1908. AEK Athens FC's attack/defence rating is 0.75/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.27 for Iraklis 1908.