Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Panetolikos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Panetolikos, 26% draw, 36% Asteras Tripolis — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Greek Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Panetolikos at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99Y. KucherenkoG
- 35C. MavriasD
- 2G. GranathD
- 49N. StajicD
- 15C. ManriqueD
- 28L. Kojic
- 18G. SatsiasM
- 10A. BassiM
- 22Esteban Diego
- 12M. DjenepoM
- 9M. MejiaF
- 23V. XenopoulosG
- 1M. Pardalos
- 4E. OlssonD
- 65A. Apostolopoulos
- 5A. ProdromitisD
- 6M. NakambaM
- 44N. ErakovicM
- 77E. NikolaouM
- 19A. BregouM
- 1N. PapadopoulosG
- 27G. KotsirasD
- 16F. BrorssonD
- 6K. ChrysopoulosD
- 28A. MendezD
- 21D. KourbelisM
- 10E. GonzalezM
- 19F. OrozcoM
- 11K. Ketu
- 7J. BartoloF
- 39RicardinhoF
- 61V. ChatziemmanouilG
- 91T. KakadiarisG
- 17A. TereziouF
- 74D. LaskarisD
- 14J. ChiccoM
- 8G. BouzoukisM
- 80B. Perez
- 44A. PapakanellosM
- 9F. MachedaF
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Panetolikos | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis
- 21 May 2026Panetolikos 1–2 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 22 April 2026Asteras Tripolis 2–1 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 14 February 2026Panetolikos 3–1 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 22 November 2025Asteras Tripolis 1–1 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 13 January 2025Asteras Tripolis 2–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 21 September 2024Panetolikos 1–1 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis
Panetolikos
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Asteras Tripolis
GoalsAssists
- F. Macheda31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Panetolikos beat Asteras Tripolis 3–1. The model had made a win for Panetolikos its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: G. Granath 6' for Panetolikos, C. Mavrias 58' for Panetolikos, F. Macheda 78' for Asteras Tripolis, K. Aleksic 80' for Panetolikos. On expected goals it finished 0.50–1.19.