League Stage - 2 · 22 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Almaty Central Stadium, Almaty

Our model says: Kairat Almaty 0–2 Panathinaikos

The model makes it 9% Kairat Almaty, 16% draw, 75% Panathinaikos — fair odds of 11.11, 6.25 and 1.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).

Expected goals: Kairat Almaty 0.68, Panathinaikos 2.78.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.

Model confidence: High.

One-sided: Panathinaikos are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Panathinaikos have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Olympiakos Piraeus.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos

46%
Both teams to score
67%
Over 2.5 goals
33%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Kairat Almaty win Draw Panathinaikos win
  1. 0–212%
  2. 0–311%
  3. 0–18%
  4. 1–28%
  5. 0–48%
  6. 1–38%
  7. 1–16%

Scores read Kairat Almaty first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 39%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Panathinaikos at 75% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos

Kairat Almaty

  • L0-3away to Anderlecht27 August 2026
  • L0-3Anderlecht20 August 2026
  • L0-1Levski Sofia11 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Levski Sofia4 August 2026
  • W1-0Omonia Nicosia29 July 2026

Panathinaikos

  • L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus11 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Kalamata20 September 2026
  • W3-0Panetolikos13 September 2026
  • W3-1Kifisia10 September 2026
  • W3-1PAOK6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Kairat Almaty failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kairat Almaty failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kairat Almaty conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Panathinaikos won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Panathinaikos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Kairat Almaty and Panathinaikos in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
1PanathinaikosSuper League 16501123+915

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Kairat Almaty has not started the league season yet. Full tables: UEFA Europa Conference League · Super League 1

Leading scorers: Kairat Almaty and Panathinaikos

Kairat Almaty

No leading scorers listed yet.

Panathinaikos

GoalsAssists

  • V. Taborda31
  • A. Tetteh30

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

A clear gap in the ratings

Kairat Almaty carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.99 for Panathinaikos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 0.68 goals for Kairat Almaty and 2.78 for Panathinaikos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Kairat Almaty rate 0.48 in attack and 2.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Panathinaikos rate 1.08 and 0.82.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Panathinaikos the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Kairat Almaty against 2.78 for Panathinaikos. Kairat Almaty's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/0.82 for Panathinaikos.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Kairat Almaty

  • at Atalanta5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 2%
  • vs Mjallby AIF26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 34%
  • vs Universitatea Craiova10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 14%
  • at Twente17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 4%

Panathinaikos

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.